McNally looks better placed for Paris start

Ajla Tomljanovic faces Caty McNally in the French Open WTA 1/64-finals on 24 May, with a best-of-three clay match opening their Paris campaigns.

The main thread is clear. McNally brings the stronger clay record, a 2-0 winning record in the rivalry, and firm market support, while Tomljanovic needs to reverse a difficult recent run.

McNally holds the rivalry lead

McNally has won both previous meetings, including their most recent match at Indian Wells on 6 March 2025. The rivalry has not moved to clay yet, but the past numbers still matter: McNally has won more games overall and has handled the key moments better, taking the only deciding set between them.

Clay results favour McNally

On clay this season, Tomljanovic is 1-6, while McNally is 5-4. The service numbers are close, but McNally's 46% return games won gives her the clearer route into Tomljanovic's serve, especially in longer games.

Recent form adds pressure

Tomljanovic has won only two of her last 10 matches and has taken the opening set in 30% of them. McNally is at 5-5 over the same span, with a stronger return-game mark and fewer double faults, so she looks better placed to settle first.

Bookmakers lean strongly one way

Bookmakers price Tomljanovic at 3.5 and McNally at 1.3, with first-set prices of 3 and 1.4. That is a clear market lean towards McNally, not just for the match but for the early pattern as well.

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Return pressure may decide it

The key question is whether Tomljanovic can protect enough second-serve points to stay level. McNally has shown the better return numbers on clay and has also been steadier in the recent sample, while the workload gap is small enough not to change the overall read.

Prediction

Odds