The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces Damir Dzumhur in the French Open ATP 1/64-finals on 24 May, on clay and over best of five sets.
The match leans clearly towards Davidovich Fokina on price, ranking and past meetings. Dzumhur has clay matches in his legs, but the recent results and the service numbers leave him with work to do.FINISHED
Davidovich Fokina A.
Dzumhur D.
6-7
, 6-3
, 2-6
, 7-5
, 6-3
Davidovich Fokina leads the match-up 2-0, including a clay win over Dzumhur at Marbella in 2021. That last meeting went to three sets, so it was not simple, but the wider numbers show Davidovich Fokina winning 30 games to 16 across their two matches. His service games also held up far better in those meetings, which matters in a longer format.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Dzumhur D.
On clay this season, Davidovich Fokina is 3-3, while Dzumhur is 7-10. Dzumhur has played more on the surface, but Davidovich Fokina has been stronger on serve, winning 76% of service games compared with 67%. That gives him the clearer starting point, even if Dzumhur's return numbers are not without value.
Davidovich Fokina has split his last 10 matches at 5-5, while Dzumhur has won only three of his last 10. The gap is sharper on serve: Davidovich Fokina has held 80% of service games in that run, against 65% for Dzumhur. Dzumhur can still apply return pressure, but he has lost seven of those 10 matches.
Bookmakers price Davidovich Fokina at 1.17 against Dzumhur at 5. The first-set market is also clear, with Davidovich Fokina at 1.33 and Dzumhur at 3.4, which suggests the favourite is expected to start strongly.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Dzumhur D.
The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
The key question is whether Dzumhur can turn return pressure into enough breaks. He has a slightly better recent return-game rate, but Davidovich Fokina's stronger hold rate, better ranking position and 2-0 record in the match-up all point the same way. Workload does not create a major split, with both players close across their last five matches.
Prediction
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Damir Dzumhur
The data points strongly towards Davidovich Fokina, mainly because the market, the rivalry record and the recent service numbers all support him. Dzumhur has enough clay mileage and return ability to make parts of the match awkward, but over best of five sets the steadier profile belongs to Davidovich Fokina.
Odds
