Momentum and serve set Davidovich Fokina apart at Wimbledon

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Marton Fucsovics meet in the Wimbledon fourth round on 2 July, a best-of-five clash on grass that pits the world number 25 against an opponent ranked 76th. Davidovich Fokina arrives with a final run in Mallorca fresh in the memory, while Fucsovics needed a retirement to reach this stage.

Hard-court history offers little grass guidance

The rivalry stands at one win apiece, both matches coming on hard courts over four years ago. Fucsovics won their Rotterdam indoor meeting in 2021, while Davidovich Fokina edged a five-set US Open thriller the following year. Those contests offer limited clues for this grass-court encounter, though the Spaniard's 2-0 record in tiebreaks across their two meetings hints at a small edge in pressure moments.

Davidovich Fokina A.

Fucsovics M.

Wins

1 1

First Serve Points Won

67 %69 %

Second Serve Points Won

45 %48 %

Return Points Won

41 %40 %

Break Points Converted

30 %63 %

Break Points Saved

38 %70 %

Davidovich Fokina's dominant grass efficiency

On grass this season, Davidovich Fokina boasts an 8-2 record and has already claimed one ATP title. He holds serve 87% of the time and converts break points at 45%, potent numbers that illustrate his comfort on the surface. Fucsovics has won three of his five grass matches, but his return game—winning just 17% of return points—is a clear weakness against a reliable server.

Recent momentum heavily favours the Spaniard

Davidovich Fokina has won eight of his last ten matches, a run that includes victories over Dimitrov and Marozsan before falling in the Mallorca final. He has dropped only two sets across five wins at Wimbledon. Fucsovics has lost four of his last five completed matches and has won only three of his last ten overall. His saving grace is a three-set win over Hurkacz in Hertogenbosch, but that form now appears distant.

Market prices reflect a clear favourite

Bookmakers price Davidovich Fokina at 1.3 to win the match, with Fucsovics a distant 3.5 outsider. The Spaniard is also favoured to take the first set at 1.44 against 2.75, underscoring the expectation of a controlled start from the world number 25.

Davidovich Fokina A.

Fucsovics M.

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Serving solidity meets a fragile return game

The core of this match-up lies in the serve. Davidovich Fokina is holding at 87% on grass, while Fucsovics is winning just 15% of return points across his last ten matches overall. That disparity suggests the Hungarian will struggle to generate break chances, leaving him reliant on his own serve to stay competitive. Fatigue is not a major factor, with both players having logged similar court time over the past week.

Prediction

Odds