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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces Rinky Hijikata in the Adelaide ATP last-16 on hard courts on 13 Jan 2026, a best-of-three test as the Australian Open looms. Alongside the match breakdown, this preview explains where to watch or follow the contest live.
The market leans heavily towards Davidovich Fokina, but the numbers around Hijikata's recent run and their only previous meeting add a note of intrigue. With the season still in its second week, form lines can shift quickly, and that uncertainty is part of the story here.FINISHED
Davidovich Fokina A.
Hijikata R.
6-3
, 6-2
It is early, but Hijikata has opened the year 4-1 on hard courts while Davidovich Fokina is 0-1. The split is not just wins and losses either: Hijikata has held 89% of service games and won 47% of return games, a profile that can pressure opponents quickly in best-of-three tennis.
Across the last 10 matches overall, Hijikata is 9-1 and has won 90% of first sets, while Davidovich Fokina is 6-4 with a 40% first-set rate. Hijikata arrives off a straight-sets win in Adelaide and also advanced via walkover in a qualifying final in Brisbane, whereas Davidovich Fokina's most recent outing ended with a straight-sets loss to Brandon Nakashima in Brisbane.
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Hijikata leads 1-0 in the head-to-head, and that lone meeting came on hard courts at the US Open on 26 Aug 2024, when he won 3-1 in sets with one tie-break and 41 games played. In that match-up the serving numbers were close, but Hijikata's edge on key points stood out, converting 50% of break chances compared with 44% for Davidovich Fokina.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Hijikata R.
Bookmakers price Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 1.33 against Rinky Hijikata at 3.4; first-set prices are 1.44 versus 2.75. That framing suggests confidence in Davidovich Fokina's baseline level, even with Hijikata bringing stronger recent indicators.
On paper the ranking gap is stark, with Davidovich Fokina at 15 and Hijikata at 115, yet the match-up looks sharper when you weigh Hijikata's recent return impact and his first-set efficiency.
The workload numbers are also worth a glance: Davidovich Fokina has logged about 5 hours 17 minutes across his last three matches, while Hijikata is at roughly 4 hours 48 minutes and has played back-to-back recently. In a short format, a quick start can decide the tone, and the early-season timing before the Australian Open only heightens that sense of volatility.Prediction
Rinky Hijikata
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Overall indicators tilt slightly towards Rinky Hijikata despite the odds making Alejandro Davidovich Fokina the clear favourite. Hijikata has the only head-to-head win and his recent run is stronger, especially in first-set performance and return numbers, which can matter disproportionately in a best-of-three. With the season still in its second week and the Australian Open close, the margin for certainty is limited, but the data points just shade his way.
Odds
