Rivalry history favours Tabilo as Tirante threatens another hard-court upset

Tabilo leads their head-to-head record 3-1, winning both encounters that required a deciding set. Their latest meeting came in the Santiago ATP last 16 on 26 February 2026, when the Chilean prevailed 2-1 on clay.

The surface changes the picture. Tirante won their only previous hard-court meeting 2-0 at the Cancun Challenger in August 2025, providing evidence that the Argentine can challenge Tabilo under the conditions relevant to this semi-final.

Tirante has compiled an 18-15 hard-court record this season, compared with Tabilo's 15-14. Neither record suggests overwhelming superiority, but the Argentine has been marginally more effective behind his serve.

Tirante has held serve in 86% of his hard-court games, against 83% for Tabilo. His return-game success is also slightly higher, suggesting a modest statistical advantage in the exchanges that determine breaks of serve.

Neither player arrived in Stockholm with particularly convincing recent results. Tabilo has won three of his last ten matches, while Tirante has managed four, although both have now recorded consecutive victories at this tournament.

Tabilo recovered from a run of three defeats to beat Lorenzo Sonego and Alex Michelsen. Tirante has overcome Jaume Munar and Alexander Shevchenko, with his latest victory requiring three sets. Across their last ten matches, Tirante's 84% service-game success compares favourably with Tabilo's 79%, although the Chilean has been slightly more productive on return.

Bookmakers price Tabilo at 1.73 against Tirante at 2.1, with first-set odds of 1.8 and 2 respectively. The market therefore gives the world number 31 a modest advantage over the 51st-ranked Argentine, without treating the semi-final as a one-sided contest.

Tirante's stronger recent service numbers give him a route into the contest, particularly if he can prevent Tabilo from applying consistent return pressure. The Chilean, however, has the better overall rivalry record and has converted 41% of his break-point opportunities on hard courts this season, compared with Tirante's 30%.

Workload adds another consideration. Tirante has spent approximately six hours and 58 minutes on court across his last three matches, against six hours and eight minutes for Tabilo. It is a relatively small difference, but one that could become relevant if the semi-final develops into another lengthy encounter.