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Aleksandar Kovacevic faces Rafael Jodar in the 1/64-finals of the French Open ATP on 25 May, on clay, over best of five sets.
The market is strongly behind Jodar, and the clay numbers support that view. Kovacevic has had useful matches on the surface, but Jodar brings the cleaner season record and the stronger return profile.FINISHED
Kovacevic A.
Jodar R.
1-6
, 0-6
, 4-6
Jodar's clay season record stands at 15 wins and 3 losses, with an ATP title already on the board. That matters here because his return games won mark of 36% gives him more ways to pressure serve than Kovacevic, who is 7-8 on clay and winning 21% of return games.
Kovacevic has split his last 10 matches, but his run in Hamburg shows he can build momentum on clay. Jodar has won seven of his last 10 and has taken 70% of first sets in that spell, which suggests he is more likely to settle quickly. It is a clear edge, not a free pass.
Bookmakers price Kovacevic at 8 against Jodar at 1.08, with first-set prices of 4.33 and 1.22. Those numbers leave little doubt about the market view, especially when paired with Jodar's broader clay record.
The key gap is not only in wins and losses. Jodar is holding serve at a strong rate on clay while also breaking often enough to keep sets shorter, with an ATP average of 21.0 total games per match. Kovacevic's service numbers are solid, but he may need a high first-serve level for long periods to stop Jodar from taking control.
Kovacevic A.
Jodar R.
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Prediction
Rafael Jodar
Aleksandar Kovacevic
The data points strongly towards Jodar, mainly because the odds, clay-season record and return numbers all lean the same way. Kovacevic has recent clay rhythm and enough serve to make parts of the match competitive, but Jodar looks the more complete pick over best of five sets.
Odds
