Michelsen and Merida Aguilar set for another close battle

Alex Michelsen faces Daniel Merida Aguilar in the US Open ATP round of 32 on 4 September, with the hard-court match played over best of five sets.

The rankings are almost level, but the market makes Michelsen the favourite. Merida Aguilar brings the better recent record and has already shown he can trouble Michelsen, leaving a match with clear arguments on both sides.

Two hard-court meetings split the rivalry

The pair have split their two previous meetings, both on hard courts. Michelsen won 2-0 at Indian Wells in March, while Merida Aguilar answered with a 2-1 victory in Montreal in August, and only one game separates them across those matches. That leaves little evidence of a clear match-up advantage.

Michelsen holds the stronger serving base

Michelsen is 24-10 on hard courts this season, compared with Merida Aguilar's 20-8. The bigger contrast is in how those results have been built: Michelsen has held serve in 88% of his service games, while Merida Aguilar has won 33% of return games. One has the stronger serving base, the other has produced more consistent return pressure.

Merida Aguilar arrives with sharper form

Recent results lean towards Merida Aguilar, who is 8-2 across his last 10 matches against Michelsen's 7-3. Both have held serve in 86% of service games over that spell, but Merida Aguilar has won 32% of return games compared with Michelsen's 25%. His wins over Marton Fucsovics and Andrey Rublev at this US Open add weight to that recent run.

Market still prefers Michelsen

Bookmakers price Michelsen at 1.57 against Merida Aguilar at 2.38, with first-set prices of 1.67 and 2.2 respectively. The market therefore gives Michelsen a clearer edge than the rankings or recent records alone would suggest.

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Serve against return may decide it

Michelsen's main route is to protect his stronger hard-court serving numbers and limit the return pressure that Merida Aguilar has produced recently. Merida Aguilar has the better last-10 record and the stronger return figures, while their previous meetings offer no clear separator. Workload is also similar, so there is little sign of a major freshness advantage for either player.

Prediction

Odds