Bublik has the edge in Paris opener

Alexander Bublik meets Jan-Lennard Struff in the French Open ATP first round on clay on 26 May, with the match set for best of five sets.

The market is clearly with Bublik, and his broader clay form also gives him the stronger case. Struff, though, brings a real warning from the rivalry, having won both previous clay meetings.

Struff's clay record keeps danger alive

Struff leads the rivalry 4-3 overall and has won both clay meetings, including a straight-sets win at the French Open ATP in 2024. Bublik did win their last meeting, a three-set grass match in Halle in 2023, but the clay record makes this more than a simple ranking-based call.

Bublik holds the stronger clay base

Bublik is 5-5 on clay this season, while Struff is 2-5, and the gap is clearest on serve. Bublik has held 80% of his service games on the surface, compared with Struff's 64%, so he should have more room to play through tight spells.

Recent form also leans one way

Bublik's last-10 record is 4-6, which is not dominant, but it still sits above Struff's 2-8 run. He also reached the semi-finals in Geneva last week, while Struff has lost his last three matches, and that contrast matters before a best-of-five opener.

Bookmakers make Bublik clear favourite

Bookmakers price Bublik at 1.25 against Struff at 4, with first-set prices of 1.4 and 3. That gives Bublik clear favourite status, though Struff's past clay success in this match-up stops the picture from looking risk-free.

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Serve control may settle the match

The main question is whether Struff can make enough inroads on return to expose Bublik's patchy recent results. Bublik's service numbers are better on clay this season, and his recent return numbers are also slightly stronger. Workload does not create a major split, with both players logging 4 hours 53 minutes across their last three matches.

Prediction

Odds