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Alexander Bublik faces Jenson Brooksby in the Australian Open ATP first round on hard courts on 18 Jan 2026, with a best-of-five test and live stream options in focus.
It is still only the second week of the 2026 season, so the early numbers can swing quickly. Even so, the market leans heavily towards Bublik, while Brooksby has the small edge of winning their only previous meeting on this surface. Below is a concise match breakdown, plus how to watch or follow the action live.FINISHED
Bublik A.
Brooksby J.
6-4
, 6-4
, 6-4
Their head-to-head stands at 1-0 to Brooksby, and it came on hard courts at Montreal in August 2022, when he won 2-0. That match was sharp rather than scrappy, averaging 17 total games with no tie-breaks, and Brooksby’s cleaner serving and conversion under pressure stood out across the numbers.
Bublik A.
Brooksby J.
Bublik arrives with a 4-0 record on hard courts this season and has already claimed one title, a strong early marker with the year barely underway. Brooksby is 1-1 so far, and the efficiency split is stark: Bublik has saved 79% of break points and converted 61%, while Brooksby sits at 33% saved and 23% converted.
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Bublik is 8-2 across his last 10, capped by a title run in Hong Kong that ended with a straight-sets win over Lorenzo Musetti. Brooksby is 5-5 in the same span and most recently fell in straight sets to Sebastian Baez in Auckland, while his workload is a touch heavier too at 5 hours 0 minutes over his last three matches compared with Bublik’s 4 hours 46.
Bublik A.
Brooksby J.
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Bookmakers price Bublik at 1.25 against Brooksby at 4, with first-set prices set at 1.4 versus 3. In a season still finding its shape, those numbers underline how firmly the expectation sits on Bublik’s side.
Bublik’s recent profile is built around holding serve, winning 92% of service games across his last 10 and landing 11.2 aces per match, which matters even more in a best-of-five opener.
Brooksby’s last-10 return output is slightly stronger at 21% of return games won, and the 2022 meeting suggested he can punish loose moments, so the pressure on Bublik’s second-serve spells could decide the tight stretches. With the first Grand Slam of 2026 only just beginning, it is a match where form and rhythm may shift quickly once the sets start to pile up.Prediction
Alexander Bublik
Jenson Brooksby
Overall indicators tilt towards Alexander Bublik: the market is strongly in his favour and his early hard-court record this season, backed by a title, points to sharp timing coming in. The caution flag is clear too, because Jenson Brooksby won their only previous meeting on this surface and has shown slightly better recent return numbers, so Bublik likely needs a clean serving day to keep the match on his terms.
Odds
