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Alexander Bublik and Rinky Hijikata meet in the Indian Wells ATP round of 32 on hard courts on 9 March, with a place in the last 16 at stake in a best-of-three contest.
This preview covers the match-up and how to follow it live, and the main themes are clear from the start: Bublik carries the stronger season profile and the only previous win between them, while Hijikata arrives with the sharper recent run. The market leans firmly one way, but the return numbers suggest this may not be entirely straightforward.FINISHED
Bublik A.
Hijikata R.
7-6
, 6-7
, 3-6
Their only previous meeting came in Phoenix on 13 March 2025, when Alexander Bublik beat Rinky Hijikata in three sets on hard courts. It ran to 29 games, and Bublik's serve was the separator, with 19 aces and a stronger conversion rate on the key break points.
Bublik A.
Hijikata R.
On hard courts this season, Bublik is 12-3 and has already collected an ATP title, holding serve in 88% of his service games. Hijikata's 13-7 record is solid and his return work stands out, with 35% of return games won and 53% of break points converted, so there is a clear way for him to make this awkward.
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Recent results give Hijikata a little more lift. He has won seven of his last 10 matches, comes in on a four-match winning run and has played his way through qualifying and the opening rounds here. Bublik is 6-4 across the same spell, but he has still pieced together a semi-final in Rotterdam and has continued to protect serve at an elite rate, winning 88% of service games across his last 10.
Bublik A.
Hijikata R.
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Bookmakers price Alexander Bublik at 1.22 against Rinky Hijikata at 4.33, with first-set prices of 1.33 and 3.4. That is a firm nod towards Bublik, even if Hijikata's recent run hints at more resistance than the outright line alone suggests.
The shape of the match is fairly easy to read. Bublik's first-strike serve has been stronger over the season, while Hijikata's better return numbers offer the most obvious route back into rallies and games. There is also a workload angle: Hijikata has spent 9 hours 53 minutes on court across his last five matches, compared with 5 hours 30 minutes for Bublik. When that is added to the previous meeting and the wider hard-court record, the balance still tilts towards Bublik.
Prediction
Alexander Bublik
Rinky Hijikata
Alexander Bublik gets the lean because the hard-court season record, the stronger hold numbers and the only previous meeting all point in his favour. Rinky Hijikata brings the better recent streak and the more active return profile, so there is a path to a competitive match, but the overall indicators still tilt towards Bublik more often than not.
Odds
