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ATP/US Open ATP/1/16-finals

Bublik form keeps Paul test closer than odds suggest

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Sep 3, 2026(..)

Alexander Bublik faces Tommy Paul in the US Open ATP round of 32 on 4 September, with the hard-court contest played over the best of five sets.

Paul brings a 5-2 rivalry lead and clear bookmaker support, but Bublik arrives with the better last-10 record and lighter recent workload. That keeps the match less one-sided than the prices suggest.

Paul holds the rivalry advantage

Paul has won five of their seven meetings and leads 3-1 on hard courts. Yet Bublik won their 2025 US Open meeting in five sets, while four of the seven clashes have gone to a deciding set; Paul won three of those, giving him a useful edge when matches tighten.

Bublik A.

Paul T.

Wins

2 5

First Serve Points Won

78 %80 %

Second Serve Points Won

45 %60 %

Return Points Won

27 %35 %

Break Points Converted

31 %29 %

Break Points Saved

71 %69 %

Hard-court numbers leave little between them

Bublik is 14-5 on hard courts this season, compared with Paul’s 20-10 record. Bublik has held serve in 88% of service games to Paul’s 87%, while Paul has won 22% of return games against 18%; that small return advantage may matter over five sets.

Bublik brings the sharper recent record

Bublik has won seven of his last 10 and has started this US Open with two victories, while Paul is 6-4 and has also won his opening two matches in New York. Bublik has held in 91% of service games during that span and won the first set 70% of the time, giving him the stronger recent starting profile.

Market gives Paul a clear edge

Bookmakers price Tommy Paul at 1.57 against Alexander Bublik at 2.38, with first-set prices of 1.67 and 2.2. The market therefore makes Paul the clear favourite, even though recent results make the gap look less comfortable.

Bublik A.

Paul T.

Win Percentage

70 %60 %

Aces per match

15.7 7.4

Double Faults per match

4.4 3

First Serve Points Won

81 %74 %

Second Serve Points Won

53 %54 %

Return Points Won

34 %36 %

Break Points Converted

41 %45 %

Break Points Saved

76 %68 %

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Return pressure could test Bublik’s serve

The clearest split is between Bublik’s stronger recent serving numbers and Paul’s better hard-court return rate. Paul also owns the stronger rivalry record, but he has spent 12 hours 52 minutes on court across his last five matches compared with Bublik’s 7 hours 45 minutes, adding some workload caution around the favourite.

Prediction

US Open ATPPICK

Tommy Paul

58%

Predicted Winner

Alexander Bublik

The overall indicators lean towards Tommy Paul, but Bublik’s serve and recent form make this a competitive call. Paul’s 5-2 rivalry lead, 3-1 hard-court record and strong market support carry weight, while Bublik’s 7-3 recent run and lighter workload keep confidence moderate.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS