| Player | Rank | Points | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
 Alexander Zverev | #1 | 9,550 | 1.38 |
 Rafael Jodar | #11 | 3,234 | 3.00 |
Alexander Zverev and Rafael Jodar meet at the ATP Finals in Turin on 15 November, with their indoor hard-court contest played over the best of three sets.
Zverev leads their rivalry and has the bookmakers' backing, but Jodar's stronger return figures suggest the German may face a demanding test despite his clear favourite status.
Zverev's French Open victory sets the precedent
Zverev won their only previous meeting in straight sets in the French Open quarter-finals on 2 June, taking the match's sole tie-break. He held serve in 93% of his service games compared with Jodar's 64%, demonstrating clear control. That encounter was on clay, however, and the pair have yet to meet on hard courts.
Head-to-head
Ahead of this matchZverev A.- Head-to-head wins
- Alexander Zverev: 1 (better value)Rafael Jodar: 0
- First-serve points won
- Alexander Zverev: 71% (better value)Rafael Jodar: 55%
- Second-serve points won
- Alexander Zverev: 61% (better value)Rafael Jodar: 59%
- Return points won
- Alexander Zverev: 44% (better value)Rafael Jodar: 31%
- Break points converted
- Alexander Zverev: 45% (better value)Rafael Jodar: 17%
- Break points saved
- Alexander Zverev: 83% (better value)Rafael Jodar: 55%
Serving consistency meets stronger return numbers
Zverev has compiled a 34-12 hard-court record this season, holding serve in 92% of his service games. Jodar's 36-15 record is similarly impressive, but his 31% return-games won rate stands well above Zverev's 19%.
That difference gives the Spaniard a potential route into the contest, provided he can find opportunities against such a reliable serve.
Equal recent records conceal contrasting strengths
Both players have won seven of their last ten matches, although Zverev has taken the opening set in 80% of those encounters compared with Jodar's 40%.
The Spaniard reached the Shanghai final, while Zverev made the semi-finals in Shanghai and Vienna. Neither arrives on a winning streak, with Zverev suffering consecutive defeats in Vienna and Paris.
Bookmakers favour Zverev despite return threat
Bookmakers price Zverev at 1.38 against Jodar at 3, making the German a clear favourite. The first-set prices of 1.48 and 2.6 respectively indicate a slightly narrower gap, although Zverev's recent opening-set record supports his position.
Player statistics
Ahead of this matchZverev A.- Matches
- Alexander Zverev: 10Rafael Jodar: 10
- Matches won
- Alexander Zverev: 70%Rafael Jodar: 70%
- Titles
- Alexander Zverev: 0Rafael Jodar: 0
- Aces per match
- Alexander Zverev: 10.3 (better value)Rafael Jodar: 6
- Double faults per match
- Alexander Zverev: 1.7Rafael Jodar: 1.4 (better value)
- First-serve points won
- Alexander Zverev: 77% (better value)Rafael Jodar: 71%
- Second-serve points won
- Alexander Zverev: 58% (better value)Rafael Jodar: 53%
- Return points won
- Alexander Zverev: 32%Rafael Jodar: 39% (better value)
- Break points converted
- Alexander Zverev: 37%Rafael Jodar: 38% (better value)
- Break points saved
- Alexander Zverev: 74% (better value)Rafael Jodar: 69%
Early service games could establish control
Zverev's ability to protect his serve is the strongest argument in his favour, reinforced by his previous victory and superior recent first-set results. Jodar offers a meaningful counterweight through his hard-court return performance and competitive recent form. The central question is whether the Spaniard can generate enough break opportunities to prevent Zverev from controlling the scoreboard.
Prediction
Zverev has a 69% estimated chance of winning, supported by his stronger service figures, previous victory over Jodar and clear market advantage. Jodar's superior return numbers and recent Shanghai final make him a credible challenger, but the overall indicators favour the German in this best-of-three contest.
