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Andrey Rublev meets Tallon Griekspoor in the Dubai ATP semi-finals on hard courts on 27 February, with a best-of-three spot in the final at stake.
Rublev leads the rivalry 3-0 and his recent return numbers have been sharper, but Griekspoor arrives with his own run of wins in Dubai. Below is a concise breakdown of the match-up, plus how to watch or follow the semi-final live.FINISHED
Rublev A.
Griekspoor T.
5-7
, 6-7
Rublev is 3-0 against Griekspoor, including a 2-1 win in their most recent meeting at Halle in June 2023 and a 2-1 hard-court victory in Doha in February 2023. Two of the three matches have gone the distance, yet Rublev has come through both deciding sets, and the overall average sits at 24.3 games per match. The serving numbers in those meetings hint at why: Rublev has won more return points, especially on second serves, which has created more frequent pressure games.
Rublev A.
Griekspoor T.
On hard courts this season, Rublev is 10-3 while Griekspoor is 6-6, and that gap is mirrored in the underlying pressure. Rublev has won 26% of return games to Griekspoor's 11%, a difference that can turn one loose service game into a set. Rublev has also been sturdier when threatened, saving 74% of break points compared with 58% for Griekspoor.
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Rublev's last 10 matches read 8-2 and Griekspoor's 6-4, and both have built confidence this week with three straight wins in Dubai. Rublev has been the cleaner starter, taking 80% of first sets across his last 10, while Griekspoor sits at 60% and may need early holds to stay level. The service levels are close, but Rublev has paired it with more consistent return traction, winning 27% of return games in that stretch against Griekspoor's 13%.
Rublev A.
Griekspoor T.
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Bookmakers price Rublev at 1.5 against Griekspoor at 2.63, with first-set prices 1.53 versus 2.5. That is a firm lean rather than a landslide, and it reflects the expectation of a competitive contest if Griekspoor serves well.
Rublev's edge in the rivalry and his stronger return profile point to repeated tests for Griekspoor's second serve, particularly if sets stay tight. Workload is a factor for both after back-to-back match days: Rublev has logged about 5 hours 12 minutes across his last three matches, with Griekspoor at roughly 4 hours 20 minutes, and both are over eight hours across the last five. If the match swings early, the first-set pattern matters, because Rublev has been starting faster and has also had the more reliable route back into games when he is behind.
Prediction
Andrey Rublev
Tallon Griekspoor
Overall indicators tilt towards Andrey Rublev: the 3-0 head-to-head lead and the season-long return edge on hard courts both suggest he can generate more break chances in key moments. The market also leans his way at 1.5, even if Tallon Griekspoor's Dubai form keeps the match in the competitive bracket. A tight set or two would not surprise, but Rublev's broader numbers point to the higher likelihood of him edging it.
Odds
