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Ann Li faces Zeynep Sonmez in the Merida WTA last-16 on hard courts on 26 February, with a best-of-three format and places in the quarter-finals on the line. Li is ranked 39th, Sonmez 81st.
The one previous meeting is hard to ignore, with Sonmez winning comfortably in a Merida final. This preview breaks down the form, the odds and the on-court themes, plus how to follow the match live and any live stream options available in your region.FINISHED
Li A.
Sonmez Z.
6-3
, 6-7
, 4-6
Sonmez leads 1-0 overall, with their lone meeting coming in the Merida final on 4 November 2024. She won in straight sets and took the match by 12 games to three, so Li will be looking for a very different shape to the contest this time.
Li A.
Sonmez Z.
On hard courts this season, Sonmez is 7-5 while Li is 4-5, a gap that hints at slightly steadier week-to-week output. Li has still held serve well at 78%, but Sonmez's return numbers are stronger at 44%, which matters if early breaks decide the tone. Li's hard-court matches have also run longer on average at 26.4 games, compared to 20.8 for Sonmez.
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Sonmez has gone 6-4 across the last 10 matches, while Li is 4-6, and the split shows up in how often each player wins return games. Sonmez sits at 47% on return over that stretch, a sharp figure, while Li is at 34% and has won 40% of first sets. There is workload in the background too: Li has spent 6 hours 21 minutes on court across her last three, while Sonmez has played back-to-back matches despite a lighter 3 hours 39 minutes in the same window.
Li A.
Sonmez Z.
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Bookmakers price Li at 1.73 against Sonmez at 2.1; first-set prices are 1.8 versus 2. It is a narrow lean rather than a strong statement.
Li's best route is clear: protect her service games and stop Sonmez getting extended looks on return, because the previous meeting in Merida ran away quickly once pressure built. Sonmez, though, brings the more assertive return profile on hard courts this season, and her last-10 numbers suggest she can turn games with a short burst. If Li keeps the scoreboard tight early, the balance shifts; if Sonmez starts fast again, the patterns from their first clash are easier to repeat.
Prediction
Ann Li
Zeynep Sonmez
Overall indicators tilt slightly towards Li, mainly because the market makes her a narrow favourite and her hard-court hold rate is the steadiest single edge in the numbers. Sonmez has the head-to-head and the stronger recent return profile, so the margin is small. Still, if Li serves to her season level, she has the tools to flip the script.
Odds
