Market backs Kalinskaya as Blinkova struggles for rhythm

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Aug 28, 2026(..)

Anna Kalinskaya and Anna Blinkova meet in the first round of the US Open WTA on 30 August, with the world number 22 carrying clear momentum into this best-of-three-sets hard-court clash.

The market heavily backs the higher-ranked Russian, and recent performance metrics suggest this pricing is well-founded. Kalinskaya's superior serving efficiency on this surface provides a distinct advantage over a Blinkova side struggling for consistency.

FINISHED

Blinkova A.

Kalinskaya A.

4-6

, 3-6

Kalinskaya holds clear hard-court efficiency edge

Kalinskaya enters this clash with a solid 13-10 hard-court record this season. She boasts a formidable 67 per cent service games won rate on the surface. Blinkova, meanwhile, has managed just six wins from 19 hard-court matches. Her return game has also faltered recently. She wins only 30 per cent of opponent service games, trailing Kalinskaya's 35 per cent.

Momentum favours the world number 22

The last ten matches highlight a widening gap in current rhythm. Kalinskaya boasts a 6-4 record, claiming the first set in 60 per cent of those outings. Blinkova has slipped to a 4-6 run. She struggles to close out tight matches, holding a mere 40 per cent deciding-set win rate.

Bookmakers heavily back the higher-ranked Russian

The betting markets reflect this clear disparity in form and ranking. Kalinskaya is priced at a strong 1.3 to take the match outright. First-set odds sit at 1.4 in her favour. Blinkova is available at 3.5 for the win, highlighting her distinct underdog status in this New York opener.

Serve dominance likely to dictate early pressure

No prior head-to-head meetings exist to guide expectations here. This match will likely be decided by first-strike tennis. Kalinskaya’s ability to hold serve comfortably should force Blinkova to take unnecessary risks on return. Given Blinkova's recent struggles to convert break points, sustaining pressure over three sets will be a steep challenge.

Blinkova A.

Kalinskaya A.

Win Percentage

40 %60 %

Aces per match

2.5 3.9

Double Faults per match

4.7 6.2

First Serve Points Won

60 %66 %

Second Serve Points Won

44 %49 %

Return Points Won

46 %42 %

Break Points Converted

39 %38 %

Break Points Saved

50 %43 %

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Prediction

US Open WTAPICK

Anna Kalinskaya

75%

Predicted Winner

Anna Blinkova

The indicators align firmly behind Kalinskaya for this opening round encounter. Her superior hard-court serving statistics provide a reliable foundation. This is compounded by a stronger recent win rate against a Blinkova side that has found wins scarce on this surface. The market pricing accurately reflects this gulf in current form.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS