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WTA/Wimbledon WTA/1/32-finals

Kostyuk's wider form edge outweighs Blinkova's grass record

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jul 1, 2026(..)

Anna Blinkova faces Marta Kostyuk in the 1/32-finals at Wimbledon WTA on 2 July, with the grass-court match played over best of three sets.

Kostyuk arrives as the clear market favourite and has the stronger recent record, but Blinkova's grass results give the match a little more texture. The main question is whether Blinkova can turn return pressure into enough scoreboard pressure.

FINISHED

Blinkova A.

Kostyuk M.

7-6

, 3-6

Kostyuk's Miami win sets the tone

Kostyuk won their only previous meeting, beating Blinkova 6-3, 6-0 in Miami on hard court on 23 March 2025. That was not a grass match, so it should not be overstretched, but the numbers from that meeting were clear: Kostyuk won 88% of her service games and created seven break chances.

Blinkova A.

Kostyuk M.

Wins

0 1

First Serve Points Won

52 %64 %

Second Serve Points Won

31 %60 %

Return Points Won

38 %54 %

Break Points Converted

33 %71 %

Break Points Saved

29 %67 %

Blinkova has more grass mileage

Blinkova has the fuller grass sample this season, with six wins and three losses, plus a solid 45% return-games won rate. Kostyuk's grass record is only one match, but it was clean: she held every service game and won 57% of return games, which points to sharp early adjustment rather than proven volume.

Recent form favours Kostyuk

Kostyuk has won eight of her last 10 matches, compared with Blinkova's six wins from 10. The gap is not only in results. Kostyuk has held 72% of service games and taken the first set in 70% of those matches, so she has been better at getting control early.

Market view is one-sided

Bookmakers price Kostyuk at 1.1 against Blinkova at 7, with first-set prices also strongly in Kostyuk's favour at 1.17 against 5. That makes the market view very clear, even if Blinkova's grass record argues against treating this as a simple mismatch.

Blinkova A.

Kostyuk M.

Win Percentage

60 %90 %

Titles

0 1

Aces per match

1.7 3.6

Double Faults per match

3.4 4.2

First Serve Points Won

62 %68 %

Second Serve Points Won

45 %48 %

Return Points Won

47 %50 %

Break Points Converted

47 %44 %

Break Points Saved

60 %58 %

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Return pressure is Blinkova's route

Blinkova's best path is to make the match messy on return and test Kostyuk's second serve. Still, Kostyuk brings stronger season form, better last-10 numbers, a lighter recent workload and the only direct win between them. That is a lot to overcome.

Prediction

Wimbledon WTAPICK

Marta Kostyuk

82%

Predicted Winner

Anna Blinkova

The data points clearly towards Marta Kostyuk, mainly because of the market gap, her stronger recent form and the way she handled the previous meeting. Blinkova's grass record keeps some caution in the call, but Kostyuk has more ways to control the match.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS