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Anna Blinkova faces Marta Kostyuk in the 1/32-finals at Wimbledon WTA on 2 July, with the grass-court match played over best of three sets.
Kostyuk arrives as the clear market favourite and has the stronger recent record, but Blinkova's grass results give the match a little more texture. The main question is whether Blinkova can turn return pressure into enough scoreboard pressure.Kostyuk won their only previous meeting, beating Blinkova 6-3, 6-0 in Miami on hard court on 23 March 2025. That was not a grass match, so it should not be overstretched, but the numbers from that meeting were clear: Kostyuk won 88% of her service games and created seven break chances.
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.
Blinkova has the fuller grass sample this season, with six wins and three losses, plus a solid 45% return-games won rate. Kostyuk's grass record is only one match, but it was clean: she held every service game and won 57% of return games, which points to sharp early adjustment rather than proven volume.
Kostyuk has won eight of her last 10 matches, compared with Blinkova's six wins from 10. The gap is not only in results. Kostyuk has held 72% of service games and taken the first set in 70% of those matches, so she has been better at getting control early.
Bookmakers price Kostyuk at 1.1 against Blinkova at 7, with first-set prices also strongly in Kostyuk's favour at 1.17 against 5. That makes the market view very clear, even if Blinkova's grass record argues against treating this as a simple mismatch.
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.
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Blinkova's best path is to make the match messy on return and test Kostyuk's second serve. Still, Kostyuk brings stronger season form, better last-10 numbers, a lighter recent workload and the only direct win between them. That is a lot to overcome.
Prediction
Marta Kostyuk
Anna Blinkova
The data points clearly towards Marta Kostyuk, mainly because of the market gap, her stronger recent form and the way she handled the previous meeting. Blinkova's grass record keeps some caution in the call, but Kostyuk has more ways to control the match.
Odds
