Clay return numbers put Kalinskaya in stronger Paris position

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: May 24, 2026(..)

Anna Kalinskaya faces Lois Boisson in the French Open WTA 1/64-finals on 26 May, on clay, in a best-of-three match.

The market leans towards Kalinskaya, and the surface numbers give that view some support. Boisson has enough break-point threat to stay involved, but her return figures leave a clear gap to close.

FINISHED

Kalinskaya A.

Boisson L.

6-2

, 6-2

Kalinskaya has the clay return edge

Kalinskaya is 4-3 on clay this season, while Boisson is 1-4. The sharper difference is on return: Kalinskaya has won 38% of return games on the surface, compared with Boisson's 16%, which gives her more routes into service games.

Recent form also favours Kalinskaya

Kalinskaya has split her last 10 matches at 5-5, while Boisson has gone 3-7. Boisson's service hold rate is slightly higher at 65% against 63%, but Kalinskaya's 31% return-game figure gives her the stronger two-way profile.

Bookmakers make Kalinskaya favourite

Bookmakers price Kalinskaya at 1.53 against Boisson at 2.5, with first-set prices of 1.62 and 2.3. That points to a clear but not overwhelming market lean.

Boisson needs first-serve control

Boisson's best route is to protect enough service games to turn the match into shorter swings. The risk is that Kalinskaya's return numbers on clay and better recent break-point conversion, at 51% across the last 10 matches, give her more pressure points to work with.

Kalinskaya A.

Boisson L.

Win Percentage

50 %40 %

Aces per match

1.7 2.4

Double Faults per match

3.8 3.1

First Serve Points Won

63 %63 %

Second Serve Points Won

42 %42 %

Return Points Won

42 %40 %

Break Points Converted

51 %37 %

Break Points Saved

51 %54 %

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Prediction

French Open WTAPICK

Anna Kalinskaya

62%

Predicted Winner

Lois Boisson

The data points towards Kalinskaya, mainly because the odds, clay record and return-game numbers line up in her favour. Boisson can make this competitive if her serve holds up, but Kalinskaya looks better placed to create breaks and control enough of the key games.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS