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Arthur Fery faces Lorenzo Musetti in the US Open first round on 30 August, with the best-of-five match played on hard courts.
Fery arrives with the stronger recent win-loss record, but Musetti has the better ranking, stronger hard-court service numbers and a clear advantage in the market. The main question is whether Fery's current momentum can narrow that gap.Fery has won 12 of 17 hard-court matches this season, while Musetti stands at 13 wins from 19. The difference is more noticeable on serve: Musetti has held in 82% of service games compared with 76% for Fery, giving the Italian a stronger base for a best-of-five contest.
Fery has won eight of his last 10 matches, including his three most recent outings at Winston-Salem. Musetti is 6-4 across the same window. There is a trade-off, though: Musetti has won 32% of return games recently compared with Fery's 20%, and he has taken the opening set in 70% of those matches.
Bookmakers price Musetti at 1.22 against Fery at 4.33, making the world No. 15 a strong favourite. The first-set prices tell a similar story, with Musetti at 1.4 and Fery at 3.
Fery's recent results make this less straightforward than the odds alone suggest, and his service games have been stronger across the last 10 matches. Musetti, however, combines the better seasonal hard-court hold rate with greater recent return pressure and a much stronger first-set record. Fery has also spent 9 hours 45 minutes on court across his last five matches, almost two hours more than Musetti.
Fery A.
Musetti L.
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Prediction
Lorenzo Musetti
Arthur Fery
The overall indicators lean clearly towards Lorenzo Musetti. Arthur Fery's 8-2 recent record deserves respect, but Musetti has the stronger hard-court service profile, better recent return numbers and heavy support from the market, making him the more likely winner.
Odds
