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Arthur Fils faces Rafael Jodar in the last-32 at Washington ATP on 27 July, with the hard-court match played over best of three sets.
The market leans towards Fils, and he also owns the only previous meeting. Still, Jodar's stronger return numbers and heavier recent match load make this a more layered contest than the prices alone suggest.Fils leads the rivalry 1-0 after beating Jodar in three sets in the Barcelona ATP semi-finals on clay on 18 April 2026. That match reached 26 games, so it was not one-way traffic, but Fils protected his serve well and saved 88% of the break points he faced.
There is no hard-court meeting between them in the data. That matters, because Washington asks a different question.
Fils A.
Jodar R.
Fils has a 13-5 hard-court record this season and has held serve in 86% of his service games, giving him a solid base for a faster match. Jodar brings more hard-court volume at 18-7 and has won 31% of return games, which gives him a clear route into Fils' service games.
The contrast is simple. Fils looks safer behind serve, while Jodar carries the sharper return profile.Both players are 6-4 across their recent matches, so there is no clean momentum gap. Fils reached the Barcelona final and Madrid semi-finals during his recent run, while Jodar's latest sequence includes strong clay results and two wins at Wimbledon.
Jodar has produced more aces lately, averaging 6.2 per match, but he has also averaged four double faults. Fils has been steadier on serve, holding 86% of service games across the same recent window.Bookmakers price Fils at 1.62 against Jodar at 2.3, with first-set prices also favouring Fils at 1.67 against 2.2. The market view is clear, but not overwhelming.
Fils A.
Jodar R.
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Jodar's return game is the biggest threat to the favourite, especially if he can turn second serves into pressure early. The caution is workload: he has spent 8 hours 43 minutes on court across his last three matches, compared with 4 hours 32 minutes for Fils.
That does not decide the match by itself. It does, however, add weight to Fils' steadier serve and market edge.Prediction
Arthur Fils
Rafael Jodar
The data points slightly more towards Fils, mainly because the odds, the previous meeting and his stronger service hold rate all line up. Jodar's return numbers make him dangerous, so this is not a high-confidence lean, but Fils has the cleaner path if he protects serve under pressure.
Odds
