Djokovic clear favourite against Rinderknech

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jul 2, 2026(..)

Arthur Rinderknech faces Novak Djokovic in the 1/16-finals at Wimbledon ATP on 3 July, with the grass-court match played over best of five sets.

Rinderknech has served strongly through his recent grass matches, but Djokovic brings the clearer market backing and the stronger return numbers. That contrast matters, because Rinderknech may need cheap holds to stay close.

Djokovic stronger on grass returns

Both players have started well on grass at Wimbledon, but the shape of their numbers is different. Rinderknech is 2-2 on the surface this season and has won 95% of his service games, while Djokovic is 2-0 and has won 97%. The bigger gap comes on return, where Djokovic has taken 21% of return games against Rinderknech's 8%, giving him more ways to break open tight sets.

Recent form gives Djokovic slight lift

Rinderknech is 5-5 across his last 10 matches and has won his first two rounds at Wimbledon, including a straight-sets win over Martin Damm. Djokovic is 6-4 in the same span and has also opened with two grass wins, beating Yibing Wu and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Short-term form is not one-sided, but Djokovic's 22% return-game win rate across the run gives him a clearer route when rallies extend.

Bookmakers make Djokovic clear favourite

Bookmakers price Djokovic at 1.14 against Rinderknech at 5.5, with first-set prices of 1.25 and 4. That is a strong market lean, and it matches the gap in ranking, return pressure and grass efficiency.

Rinderknech serve must carry him

Rinderknech's best path is clear: hold often, keep sets close and force Djokovic to serve under scoreboard pressure. His 15.9 aces per match across the last 10 show the weapon is there. Still, Djokovic has converted 64% of break points on grass this season, so even a few loose service games could be costly.

Rinderknech A.

Djokovic N.

Win Percentage

50 %60 %

Aces per match

15.9 7.6

Double Faults per match

3.9 2.8

First Serve Points Won

81 %74 %

Second Serve Points Won

54 %56 %

Return Points Won

33 %37 %

Break Points Converted

29 %41 %

Break Points Saved

75 %68 %

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Prediction

Wimbledon ATPPICK

Novak Djokovic

82%

Predicted Winner

Arthur Rinderknech

The data points clearly towards Djokovic, mainly because the market view, grass return numbers and recent Wimbledon results all line up in his favour. Rinderknech's serve can keep parts of the match tight, but Djokovic has the broader route to control over five sets.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS