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Aryna Sabalenka faces Taylor Townsend in the US Open WTA last 16 on 6 September, on hard courts and over the best of three sets, for a place in the quarter-finals.
Sabalenka enters with the stronger hard-court record and a clear market advantage. Townsend has been competitive lately, but the gap in return results and overall surface form gives the world number one the firmer case.Sabalenka has gone 30-3 on hard courts this season, compared with Townsend's 16-7 record. She has also held 85% of her service games and won 39% on return, giving her a stronger platform in both parts of the match.
The recent gap is smaller, with Sabalenka at 7-3 across her last 10 matches and Townsend at 6-4. Both have won the opening set in 70% of those matches, but Sabalenka's 40% return-game success against Townsend's 30% suggests she has created pressure more consistently.
Bookmakers price Sabalenka at 1.17 against Townsend at 5, making the favourite clear. The first-set prices tell a similar story at 1.29 and 3.75 respectively, so the market expects that advantage to appear early.
Townsend's recent serving numbers are competitive, including slightly more aces and fewer double faults per match, so Sabalenka may not get cheap openings. The broader numbers still favour Sabalenka because she combines stronger return results with better hard-court form, while Townsend has also spent 8 hours 8 minutes on court across her last five matches compared with Sabalenka's 6 hours 43 minutes.
Sabalenka A.
Townsend T.
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Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka
Taylor Townsend
The overall indicators lean clearly towards Aryna Sabalenka. Her hard-court record and return numbers are stronger, while the odds also make her a heavy favourite, although Townsend's recent form and solid serving give her some room to make individual sets competitive.
Odds
