Market trust stays with Sabalenka despite Kostovic grass start

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jun 27, 2026(..)

Aryna Sabalenka faces Teodora Kostovic in the Wimbledon WTA first round on 29 June, with the grass-court match played over best of three sets.

The ranking gap is large and the prices are heavily one-sided. Still, Kostovic arrives with a clean grass record this season, which gives this opener a small note of caution rather than a simple walk-through on paper.

Kostovic brings the cleaner grass start

Kostovic has opened her grass season with three wins from three, holding 86% of her service games and winning 30% on return. That is a useful base on this surface, even if the wider season picture still favours Sabalenka.

Sabalenka is 2-1 on grass this season, with a 69% hold rate and 23% of return games won. Her broader year is much stronger, though: 33 wins, five losses and three WTA titles underline why she remains the clear player to beat.

Recent form keeps Sabalenka ahead

Sabalenka has won seven of her last 10 matches, while Kostovic has split her last 10 at five wins and five losses. That matters because Sabalenka has also started matches better, taking the first set in 80% of those recent contests.

The serving gap is not huge in the recent sample, but Sabalenka's return numbers are stronger. She has won 38% of return games across her last 10, compared with 33% for Kostovic, and that pressure could quickly show if the underdog has a loose service spell.

Bookmakers see a clear favourite

Bookmakers price Sabalenka at 1.04 against Kostovic at 13, with first-set prices of 1.1 and 7. The market view is clear: Kostovic is being asked to produce a major upset, not just a good performance.

Early pressure is the key test

Kostovic's grass serving numbers give her a route to staying close early, especially if she lands enough first serves and avoids cheap pressure. Sabalenka's case is broader and stronger: ranking, season record, recent first-set control and market confidence all line up in her favour. The workload figures are close enough not to change the main read.

Sabalenka A.

Kostovic T.

Win Percentage

70 %50 %

Aces per match

4.1 3.3

Double Faults per match

2.7 2.3

First Serve Points Won

66 %62 %

Second Serve Points Won

47 %51 %

Return Points Won

46 %43 %

Break Points Converted

52 %44 %

Break Points Saved

63 %56 %

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Prediction

Wimbledon WTAPICK

Aryna Sabalenka

91%

Predicted Winner

Teodora Kostovic

The data points strongly towards Sabalenka, mainly because her wider season record and recent form are far stronger, and the market gives her overwhelming support. Kostovic's unbeaten grass start deserves respect, but she will likely need a very high serving level to keep this match tight for long.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS