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Ben Shelton faces Tallon Griekspoor in the US Open ATP 1/64-finals on 30 August, a best-of-five hard-court match with Shelton carrying the clearer form edge.
The gap is visible across the broader hard-court numbers and recent results, while the market also makes Shelton a strong favourite. Griekspoor has enough serving power to create difficult stretches, but he needs to close a wider gap in both holding serve and applying return pressure.Shelton has gone 19-6 on hard courts this season, compared with Griekspoor's 10-9 record. He has also held serve in 91% of service games on the surface, against 85% for Griekspoor, giving him a stronger base in a best-of-five match.
Shelton has saved 72% of break points on hard courts, while Griekspoor stands at 59%. That difference matters because it suggests Shelton has been more reliable when his service games come under pressure.Shelton has won eight of his last 10 matches and recently came through a strong Montreal run, beating Nakashima in the final before losing his next match in Cincinnati. Griekspoor is 4-6 across his recent sample, although wins over Sonego, Zverev and Arnaldi show that his best level can still cause problems.
The first-set numbers are especially different. Shelton has won the opening set in 80% of his recent matches, compared with 20% for Griekspoor, which increases the pressure on the Dutchman to start well.Bookmakers price Shelton at 1.17 against Griekspoor at 5.00, with first-set prices of 1.30 and 3.50 respectively. The gap is substantial and closely matches the stronger season and recent-form indicators on Shelton's side.
Griekspoor has averaged 9.4 aces across his recent matches, well above Shelton's 5.2, so there is a clear route for him to protect stretches of the match with his serve. The wider numbers still favour Shelton: he has recently won 89% of service games and 25% of return games, compared with Griekspoor's 83% and 17%.
Workload offers little reason to change the picture. Both have spent almost exactly seven hours and 50 minutes on court across their last five matches, and neither comes in on a back-to-back schedule.
Shelton B.
Griekspoor T.
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Prediction
Ben Shelton
Tallon Griekspoor
The overall indicators lean clearly towards Ben Shelton. His stronger hard-court record and recent form are backed by better service and return numbers, while the market also prices him as a heavy favourite.<div class="p__spacing"></div>Tallon Griekspoor's recent ace production gives him a way to keep sets competitive, but Shelton has shown greater consistency across the areas most likely to matter over five sets.
Odds
