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WTA/Hertogenbosch WTA/1/16-finals

Mertens has market edge despite Andreescu rivalry record

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jun 7, 2026(..)

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu faces Elise Mertens in the 1/16-finals at Hertogenbosch WTA on 8 June, with a best-of-three grass match setting up an interesting early test.

Andreescu owns the past meetings, but the current numbers lean the other way. Mertens brings the stronger ranking, firmer season form and clear market support, which matters in a match where neither player has a fresh grass sample in the supplied season data.

FINISHED

Andreescu B.

Mertens E.

1-6

, 2-6

Andreescu holds the rivalry card

Andreescu leads their rivalry 2-0, with the most recent win coming 2-0 in Beijing on hard court on 2 October 2019. Their two meetings averaged 24.0 total games, so this record does not point to easy wins, but it does show Andreescu has handled this match-up before.

Andreescu B.

Mertens E.

Wins

2 0

First Serve Points Won

73 %62 %

Second Serve Points Won

43 %47 %

Return Points Won

44 %40 %

Break Points Converted

41 %33 %

Break Points Saved

67 %59 %

Broader season form favours Mertens

There is no meaningful current grass record in the supplied season numbers, so the wider season picture carries more weight. Mertens stands at 17-10 compared with Andreescu's 10-10, and her stronger return-game rate, 39% against 30%, gives her a clearer route to pressure.

Recent numbers stay close

Mertens has gone 5-5 across her last 10 matches, just ahead of Andreescu's 4-6 mark. The gap is small, but Mertens is winning 68% of service games and 38% of return games in that run, both slightly better than Andreescu's 64% and 32%.

Bookmakers side with Mertens

Bookmakers price Andreescu at 3 against Mertens at 1.4, with first-set prices of 2.75 and 1.44. That is a clear market lean towards Mertens, even if the past meetings add some caution.

Andreescu B.

Mertens E.

Win Percentage

40 %60 %

Aces per match

3.6 4

Double Faults per match

3.9 3.7

First Serve Points Won

63 %66 %

Second Serve Points Won

45 %44 %

Return Points Won

43 %45 %

Break Points Converted

41 %50 %

Break Points Saved

53 %55 %

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Return pressure may decide it

Andreescu's past success in the rivalry keeps this from looking simple. Still, Mertens has the better recent return numbers, stronger season return numbers and a slightly lighter recent workload, with 8 hours 28 minutes across her last five matches compared with Andreescu's 9 hours 35 minutes. On grass, small breaks of serve can carry extra weight.

Prediction

Hertogenbosch WTAPICK

Elise Mertens

64%

Predicted Winner

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

The data points more towards Mertens, mainly because the market, season form and recent serve-return balance all sit on her side. Andreescu's 2-0 rivalry lead is a real warning, but the broader indicators make Mertens the more likely winner.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS