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Clara Tauson faces Ajla Tomljanovic in the Athens WTA round of 16 on 13 July, with a quarter-final place at stake on hard courts over best-of-three sets.
The market favours Tauson, but the wider picture is less clear. Tomljanovic leads the rivalry 4-2 and has won six of her last 10, while Tauson arrives with only two wins in that span.Tomljanovic leads the rivalry 4-2 and has won all three tiebreaks between them. The six meetings have still been close, with Tauson winning 70 games to Tomljanovic's 68 and three matches reaching a deciding set. They have not previously met on hard courts, while Tauson won their latest match in straight sets on clay in Charleston on 14 April 2021.
Tauson C.
Tomljanovic A.
On hard courts this season, Tauson is 8-8 and Tomljanovic 8-6. Tauson's serve has been the stronger base, with 74% of service games held, but Tomljanovic has taken 37% of return games and may apply more regular pressure. Both have converted 50% of their break chances, which keeps the gap small.
Recent form clearly belongs to Tomljanovic. She is 6-4 across her last 10 and has won 40% of return games, while Tauson is 2-8 with a return rate of only 20%. Tomljanovic has also converted 54% of her break points during that run, compared with 31% for Tauson.
Bookmakers price Tauson as the favourite at 1.67, with Tomljanovic at 2.2. The first-set market follows the same view at 1.73 and 2.1, but that advantage looks less comfortable once their recent results are considered.
Tauson C.
Tomljanovic A.
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Tauson's clearest route is to protect her stronger hard-court serve and stop Tomljanovic from creating repeated return pressure. Tomljanovic has spent 7 hours 16 minutes on court across her last three matches, compared with Tauson's 5 hours 34 minutes, although neither is playing on consecutive days. That workload is a small concern, but Tomljanovic's recent return form gives her a real path to the upset.
Prediction
Ajla Tomljanovic
Clara Tauson
The market and ranking gap support Tauson, but the current numbers lean slightly the other way. Tomljanovic's 6-4 recent record, stronger return figures and 4-2 rivalry lead give her a narrow edge, although Tauson's serve should keep the match close.
Odds
