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Cristian Garin meets Sebastian Baez in the Santiago ATP last 16 on clay on 26 February 2026, with the contest set for a best-of-three-sets format.
Baez is ranked 52 to Garin's 93 and starts as the favourite, helped by a 2-0 clay head-to-head that has shaped their match-up. Below you'll find the key numbers and themes, plus where to watch or follow the match live.FINISHED
Garin C.
Baez S.
6-7
, 6-1
, 5-7
Baez leads 2-1 overall and is 2-0 on clay against Garin, a surface record that matters with this meeting back in Santiago. Garin did win their most recent match in Miami in March 2023, taking it 2-0, but their meetings still tend to land around 21.7 games on average.
Garin C.
Baez S.
On clay this season, Garin is 1-1 while Baez is 2-2, so both are still building volume. The difference sits on serve: Baez has won 71% of service games to Garin's 63%, which can be decisive in tight sets.
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Both arrive with a 5-5 record across the last 10 matches, but the early pattern is different. Baez has taken the opening set 50% of the time, compared with 20% for Garin, even though Garin's return rate over that spell is the higher one at 31%.
Garin C.
Baez S.
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Bookmakers price Baez at 1.44 against Garin at 2.75; the first-set market is 1.53 versus 2.5. The gap frames Baez as the more likely straight-sets starter, without ruling out a scrap on clay.
The rivalry numbers point to a key pressure point: Baez has held 74% of the time in their meetings, while Garin has been at 58%, so Garin may need his recent return bite to show early. Workload is another small factor, with Garin logging 4 hours and 17 minutes across his last three matches compared with 2 hours and 55 minutes for Baez, which could matter if the match drifts long.
Prediction
Sebastian Baez
Cristian Garin
Overall indicators tilt towards Sebastian Baez, with the market making him a clear favourite and the clay head-to-head reading 2-0 in his favour. Cristian Garin's higher recent return numbers keep the door ajar, but Baez's stronger hold trend in the matchup gives him the safer edge.
Odds
