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Damir Dzumhur faces Vit Kopriva in the Mallorca ATP 1/16-finals on 23 June, with a best-of-three grass-court match offering a narrow contrast.
Kopriva arrives with the higher ranking and the lighter market favourite status, but Dzumhur has just come through two grass wins in qualifying. That makes this less clear than the prices suggest.Kopriva won their only previous match, beating Dzumhur 2-0 on hard court at the Canberra Challenger on 1 January 2025. That result gives him a clear reference point, especially as he won more return points and converted 67% of his break chances in that meeting. Still, there is no grass record between them.
Dzumhur D.
Kopriva V.
Dzumhur has opened his grass season with two wins from two, and the numbers are strong enough to matter. He has held 88% of his service games and won 56% of return games on the surface, which points to a player finding quick rhythm in both directions. Kopriva's grass sample is only one match, a loss, with a much lower return-game rate of 7%.
Dzumhur is 5-5 across his last 10 matches, while Kopriva is 4-6. The sharper angle is timing: Dzumhur has won his last two, both on grass in Mallorca qualifying, while Kopriva has lost two in a row. Kopriva's service-game number is slightly better over the last 10, 71% to 68%, but Dzumhur has done more damage on return.
Bookmakers price Dzumhur at 2 against Kopriva at 1.8, with the same 2 against 1.8 split in the first-set market. That keeps Kopriva as the favourite, but only narrowly.
Dzumhur D.
Kopriva V.
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The match looks close because the broad profile favours Kopriva, while the grass evidence leans towards Dzumhur. Dzumhur's return numbers on grass are the clearest pressure point, especially against an opponent who has played almost 14 hours and 10 minutes across his last five matches. Kopriva has the better ranking and the only past win. Dzumhur has the more useful surface form now.
Prediction
Damir Dzumhur
Vit Kopriva
The data points slightly more towards Dzumhur, mainly because his grass form and recent Mallorca wins offset Kopriva's ranking, odds edge and previous win in the match-up. It is a narrow call. Kopriva has enough market support to make this tight, but Dzumhur's return pressure on grass gives him a small route through.
Odds
