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Dane Sweeny faces Lorenzo Musetti in the US Open ATP 1/32-finals on 3 September, with their hard-court meeting played over the best of five sets.
The gap in the market is large, and the recent numbers support it. Musetti has been winning more often while also holding serve much more reliably, leaving Sweeny needing a clear improvement to make this close.Musetti has won 14 of his 20 hard-court matches this season, compared with Sweeny's 19 wins from 37. The bigger difference comes on serve: Musetti has held in 82% of service games, against 73% for Sweeny, which gives him a stronger base over a best-of-five match.
Musetti has gone 7-3 across his last 10 matches, while Sweeny is 4-6. He has also held serve in 81% of games during that spell and won 80% of first sets, giving him a better recent record both at protecting leads and establishing them early.
Bookmakers price Musetti at 1.04 against Sweeny at 13, with first-set prices of 1.17 and 5 respectively. Those numbers make Musetti a very strong favourite and broadly match the difference shown by their recent results.
Sweeny's route into the match is narrow. Musetti has combined stronger recent serving with a 35% return-games win rate over his last 10, compared with Sweeny's 26%, so the favourite has held the advantage on both sides of the ball. Sweeny's workload has also been slightly heavier across his last five matches, though neither player arrives on a back-to-back schedule.
Sweeny D.
Musetti L.
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Prediction
Lorenzo Musetti
Dane Sweeny
The overall indicators strongly favour Lorenzo Musetti. His 7-3 recent record, stronger hard-court serving numbers and very short market price all point in the same direction, while Sweeny enters with a 4-6 recent record and a much lower service hold rate.
Odds
