Medvedev favoured over Rinderknech despite recent defeat

Daniil Medvedev faces Arthur Rinderknech in the US Open last 16 on hard courts on 4 September. The best-of-five-set format means patience and physical durability will matter. The market clearly favours Medvedev, but a recent defeat to Rinderknech adds a layer of caution.

Rinderknech has recent edge in level rivalry

Their hard-court record is level at one win each. Medvedev won their 2022 US Open meeting in straight sets, but Rinderknech hit back with a three-set victory in the Shanghai semi-finals last October. That recent result prevents this from feeling like a one-sided contest despite the ranking gap.

Medvedev D.

Rinderknech A.

Wins

1 1

First Serve Points Won

76 %67 %

Second Serve Points Won

57 %45 %

Return Points Won

41 %31 %

Break Points Converted

21 %33 %

Break Points Saved

67 %79 %

Medvedev's return numbers set him apart

Medvedev's hard-court season has been far more productive. He has 23 wins and two titles, while Rinderknech has managed seven wins against nine defeats. Both hold serve at 86%, but Medvedev wins 31% of return games compared with Rinderknech's 16%, which creates a clear tactical split.

Both arrive on two-match winning runs

Both players have won five of their last ten matches and arrive on two-match winning runs. Rinderknech's serving has been the more explosive, averaging 15 aces per match, yet he has taken only 30% of first sets. Medvedev's first-set mark is 50%, but he has not won a deciding set in that stretch.

Bookmakers heavily favour Medvedev

Bookmakers price Medvedev at 1.36 against Rinderknech's 3.20. The first-set market is slightly tighter at 1.50 versus 2.63, reflecting the possibility of an early serving battle.

Medvedev D.

Rinderknech A.

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Serve pressure against Medvedev's return

Return pressure is likely to define the contest. Medvedev creates many break chances but has converted only 21% of them in their head-to-head matches, while Rinderknech has saved 79% of break points faced. The fresher legs also belong to Medvedev, who has spent just under six hours on court in his last three matches compared with Rinderknech's nine hours and 46 minutes.

Prediction

Odds