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Daniil Medvedev and Jenson Brooksby meet in the Dubai ATP quarter-finals on hard courts on 26 February, with a best-of-three place in the semi-finals on the line.
Medvedev arrives as the higher-ranked player and the market makes him a clear favourite, but Brooksby's recent ability to grab early leads adds a wrinkle. Below is the key form and head-to-head picture, plus how to watch or follow the match live.FINISHED
Medvedev D.
Brooksby J.
6-2
, 6-1
Their head-to-head is limited to one match, but it tilted clearly to Medvedev: a 2-0 win over Brooksby in Miami in March 2022 on hard courts. That day was tight enough on the scoreboard at 19 total games, yet the underlying pressure points leaned his way, with Medvedev winning 85% of first-serve points and converting all his break chances in that encounter.
Medvedev D.
Brooksby J.
On hard courts this season, Medvedev is 11-3 and has one ATP title, a steadier body of work than Brooksby's 3-4 record. The separation shows most on return: Medvedev has won 34% of return games to Brooksby's 14%, a gap that can turn one break per set into a match control point.
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Medvedev's last 10 matches read 7-3, while Brooksby is 4-6, and the trend points towards who can apply scoreboard pressure from the baseline. Brooksby has won the first set in 70% of those matches, yet he has not won a deciding set in that spell, so the longer the contest stretches, the more the numbers lean back towards Medvedev.
Medvedev D.
Brooksby J.
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Bookmakers price Medvedev at 1.25 against Brooksby at 4, with first-set prices of 1.33 versus 3.4. It is a strong steer towards Medvedev, even with Brooksby's recent habit of landing early punches.
Both players come in off back-to-back days, but Brooksby has logged the heavier recent workload: 4 hours 44 minutes across his last three matches and 9 hours 16 minutes across his last five, compared with Medvedev's 3 hours 40 minutes and 7 hours 21 minutes. If legs matter late, Medvedev's stronger return profile on hard courts could become more decisive, especially against a Brooksby game that has held serve well but struggled to turn return looks into breaks.
Prediction
Daniil Medvedev
Jenson Brooksby
Overall indicators tilt towards Daniil Medvedev: the market is firmly on his side, and his hard-court season numbers show a much stronger return imprint than Jenson Brooksby's. Add a straight-sets win in their only previous meeting and a lighter recent workload, and Medvedev has the cleaner route on paper, even if Brooksby's fast starts keep the early stages honest.
Odds
