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Daniil Medvedev meets Kamil Majchrzak in the Brisbane ATP quarter-finals on hard courts on 09 Jan 2026, with a best-of-three place in the last four on the line. Medvedev is ranked 13th, while Majchrzak is 62nd.
Alongside the match breakdown, this preview explains how to watch or follow the contest live. With the 2026 season only just getting going, the early numbers come with a small-sample warning, even as the market points firmly one way.FINISHED
Medvedev D.
Majchrzak K.
6-7
, 6-3
, 6-2
Medvedev is 2-0 on hard courts so far this season, pairing an 88% hold rate with a 53% return-games figure that suggests early control from the back of the court. Majchrzak is 3-1 and serving efficiently at 91%, but his 21% return rate on the surface leaves less margin if sets stay tight.
Across the last 10 matches, Medvedev is 7-3 and has won four of his last five, arriving in Brisbane with straight-sets wins over Fucsovics and Tiafoe. Majchrzak sits at 5-5, yet his 70% first-set win rate hints he can begin sharply, even if the overall trend is less stable.
The gap on return has shown up recently too, with Medvedev at 30% of return games won versus 19% for Majchrzak, and Medvedev also looks more reliable when matches stretch to a third set (75% to 20%).For reliable live streaming of this match, we recommend signing up with bet365. Please note that this service is strictly for users aged 18+ who maintain a funded account. Due to broadcasting rights, geo-restrictions may apply, so we advise checking the schedule to confirm availability in your location. In our experience, this is the premier option for watching the entire tennis season.
Bookmakers price Medvedev at 1.17 against Majchrzak at 5, with first-set prices 1.29 versus 3.75. It is a strong lean, although the timing matters because this is the first proper week of the new season.
Medvedev D.
Majchrzak K.
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Majchrzak has spent about six hours on court across his last three matches, compared with a little over two for Medvedev, and that difference can matter in a best-of-three if the rallies get heavy.
The numbers also point to contrasting paths: Majchrzak's serving has been a major shield, while Medvedev's stronger returning on hard courts offers more frequent looks at breaks. If Majchrzak lands a quick first set, the tone could change, but Medvedev's deeper recent edge in deciding sets keeps the overall picture tilted.Prediction
Daniil Medvedev
Kamil Majchrzak
Overall indicators tilt towards Daniil Medvedev: the market is heavily in his favour, and the early hard-court figures show a much stronger return profile that should create more pressure points. The caution is that the season is only just starting, and Kamil Majchrzak has been serving well, but Medvedev's lighter recent workload and steadier late-match outcomes give him the clearer route.
Odds
