ATP / Brisbane ATP1/16-finals
Finished
Set-by-set scores
PlayerSet 1Set 2Sets
Neutral representation
Daniil Medvedev
✓
662
Hungary
Marton Fucsovics
230
Match finished.
Prediction correct
Daniil Medvedev faces Marton Fucsovics in the Brisbane ATP 1/16-finals on hard courts on 04 Jan 2026, with the match set to be decided over the best of three sets. This preview breaks down the head-to-head trend, recent indicators and what the odds suggest, while also outlining how to watch or follow the match live as the new season begins.

Medvedev holds a 5–1 edge overall

The match-up has largely swung Medvedev’s way, with five wins from six meetings, and he is 3–0 against Fucsovics on hard courts. The most recent clash went the other direction, though, with Fucsovics winning 3-1 at the French Open on 28 Sep 2020.
Across their meetings, Medvedev’s service games won rate has been higher (88% to 74%), which helps explain why the rivalry has often tilted his way even when stretches get tight.

Head-to-head

Ahead of this match
Neutral representationMedvedev D.
H2H
Fucsovics M.Hungary
Head-to-head wins
Daniil Medvedev: 5 (better value)Marton Fucsovics: 1
First-serve points won
Daniil Medvedev: 72%Marton Fucsovics: 72%
Second-serve points won
Daniil Medvedev: 51% (better value)Marton Fucsovics: 45%
Return points won
Daniil Medvedev: 40% (better value)Marton Fucsovics: 35%
Break points converted
Daniil Medvedev: 44% (better value)Marton Fucsovics: 29%
Break points saved
Daniil Medvedev: 71% (better value)Marton Fucsovics: 56%

Early-season blank slate adds uncertainty

This tournament comes at the very start of the 2026 season, and neither player has yet logged a hard-court win or loss in the new campaign. That keeps the focus on underlying patterns rather than fresh seasonal numbers. Rankings point to the same direction, with Medvedev listed at 13th and Fucsovics at 55th, but Brisbane will quickly test how sharp those baselines look in January.

How to watch Daniil Medvedev v. Marton Fucsovics Online

By signing up at bet365, you gain access to one of the most reliable live streaming services available for this match and the rest of the tennis season. Access requires a funded account and is limited to users 18+. Be aware that geo-restrictions apply, so verify the schedule for your specific location.

Recent form leans towards Medvedev’s serve

Over their last 10 matches overall, Medvedev is 7–3 and Fucsovics 4–6, a gap that matters in a best-of-three where slow starts can be costly. Medvedev has held serve at 88% in that spell and has averaged 9.4 aces per match, while Fucsovics sits at 77% with 3.2 aces. Both have been more vulnerable early than you might expect, but Medvedev still leads on first-set win rate, 50% to 40%.

Player statistics

Ahead of this match
Neutral representationMedvedev D.
Fucsovics M.Hungary
Matches
Daniil Medvedev: 10Marton Fucsovics: 10
Matches won
Daniil Medvedev: 70% (better value)Marton Fucsovics: 40%
Titles
Daniil Medvedev: 1 (better value)Marton Fucsovics: 0
Aces per match
Daniil Medvedev: 9.4 (better value)Marton Fucsovics: 3.2
Double faults per match
Daniil Medvedev: 4.4Marton Fucsovics: 1.7 (better value)
First-serve points won
Daniil Medvedev: 75% (better value)Marton Fucsovics: 68%
Second-serve points won
Daniil Medvedev: 50%Marton Fucsovics: 52% (better value)
Return points won
Daniil Medvedev: 39%Marton Fucsovics: 39%
Break points converted
Daniil Medvedev: 42% (better value)Marton Fucsovics: 40%
Break points saved
Daniil Medvedev: 67% (better value)Marton Fucsovics: 57%

Bookmakers make Medvedev a clear favourite

Bookmakers price Medvedev at 1.29 against Fucsovics at 3.75; first-set prices are 1.36 versus 3.2. It is a firm lean rather than a coin-flip, even with the season only just getting going.

Serve security could set the tone

The clearest thread is whether Fucsovics can consistently dent Medvedev’s delivery, because the historical numbers in this match-up point to fewer cheap looks on return. Workload is a minor counterpoint: Medvedev has spent 5 hours 13 minutes on court across his last three matches, while Fucsovics is at 2 hours 57 minutes, although Fucsovics’ last five total is heavier at 7 hours 36 minutes. With Brisbane opening the year, there is an extra note of caution around rust and timing, and that can drag a match closer than the price suggests.

Prediction

PICKDaniil Medvedev
76%Win probability
Overall indicators tilt towards Daniil Medvedev: the market makes him a clear favourite, and the head-to-head on hard courts has been one-sided. Recent numbers also point his way, led by a stronger hold rate and a bigger ace output, even if early-season sharpness is still an open question in Brisbane.
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