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Daniil Medvedev faces Marton Fucsovics in the Brisbane ATP 1/16-finals on hard courts on 04 Jan 2026, with the match set to be decided over the best of three sets. This preview breaks down the head-to-head trend, recent indicators and what the odds suggest, while also outlining how to watch or follow the match live as the new season begins.
FINISHED
Medvedev D.
Fucsovics M.
6-2
, 6-3
The match-up has largely swung Medvedev’s way, with five wins from six meetings, and he is 3–0 against Fucsovics on hard courts. The most recent clash went the other direction, though, with Fucsovics winning 3-1 at the French Open on 28 Sep 2020.
Across their meetings, Medvedev’s service games won rate has been higher (88% to 74%), which helps explain why the rivalry has often tilted his way even when stretches get tight.Medvedev D.
Fucsovics M.
This tournament comes at the very start of the 2026 season, and neither player has yet logged a hard-court win or loss in the new campaign. That keeps the focus on underlying patterns rather than fresh seasonal numbers. Rankings point to the same direction, with Medvedev listed at 13th and Fucsovics at 55th, but Brisbane will quickly test how sharp those baselines look in January.
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Over their last 10 matches overall, Medvedev is 7–3 and Fucsovics 4–6, a gap that matters in a best-of-three where slow starts can be costly. Medvedev has held serve at 88% in that spell and has averaged 9.4 aces per match, while Fucsovics sits at 77% with 3.2 aces. Both have been more vulnerable early than you might expect, but Medvedev still leads on first-set win rate, 50% to 40%.
Medvedev D.
Fucsovics M.
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Bookmakers price Medvedev at 1.29 against Fucsovics at 3.75; first-set prices are 1.36 versus 3.2. It is a firm lean rather than a coin-flip, even with the season only just getting going.
The clearest thread is whether Fucsovics can consistently dent Medvedev’s delivery, because the historical numbers in this match-up point to fewer cheap looks on return. Workload is a minor counterpoint: Medvedev has spent 5 hours 13 minutes on court across his last three matches, while Fucsovics is at 2 hours 57 minutes, although Fucsovics’ last five total is heavier at 7 hours 36 minutes. With Brisbane opening the year, there is an extra note of caution around rust and timing, and that can drag a match closer than the price suggests.
Prediction
Daniil Medvedev
Marton Fucsovics
Overall indicators tilt towards Daniil Medvedev: the market makes him a clear favourite, and the head-to-head on hard courts has been one-sided. Recent numbers also point his way, led by a stronger hold rate and a bigger ace output, even if early-season sharpness is still an open question in Brisbane.
Odds
