Form and market odds strongly favour Rybakina in London

Elena Rybakina plays Tatjana Maria in the last 16 of the London WTA on 12 June. The grass-court match is played over the best of three sets. Rybakina enters as the heavy favourite, but Maria brings useful recent form on the surface to this match.

FINISHED

Rybakina E.

2

1

Maria T.

6-7

, 7-5

, 6-0

Rivalry level ahead of grass test

Rybakina and Maria are level at one match apiece. Rybakina won their most recent meeting in straight sets in Beijing in 2023. Their previous matches have been close, averaging just over 20 games per match, with Maria taking the only tiebreak they have played.

Rybakina E.

Maria T.

Wins

1 1

First Serve Points Won

76 %65 %

Second Serve Points Won

59 %37 %

Return Points Won

45 %32 %

Break Points Converted

37 %67 %

Break Points Saved

33 %63 %

Maria finds early grass form

Maria has already built a 4-1 record on grass this season. She is winning 71% of her service games and converting 50% of her break point chances. Rybakina has yet to play a grass match this year, but her overall season record of 31 wins and 8 losses shows her high level.

Rybakina leads in recent matches

Rybakina has won seven of her last ten matches across all surfaces. She has spent over eight and a half hours on court in her last five matches, compared to roughly six and a half for Maria. Maria is 6-4 over the same time, with a perfect record in deciding sets but a lower service hold rate.

Bookmakers strongly back Rybakina

The market shows the big ranking gap between the two players. Bookmakers price Rybakina at 1.17 against Maria at 5.00, with first-set odds also strongly favouring Rybakina at 1.29.

Rybakina E.

Maria T.

Strong serving meets good grass form

Rybakina's strong serving record gives her a clear advantage on paper. Her overall season numbers show she wins 81% of her service games. Maria will need to use her recent surface confidence and break point conversion rate to challenge that rhythm.

Prediction

Odds