Clay record puts Sierra in front of Raducanu in French Open first round clash

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: May 22, 2026(..)

Emma Raducanu faces Solana Sierra in the first round of the French Open WTA on 24 May, with clay and a best-of-three format setting the test.

The market leans towards Sierra, and the clay numbers explain part of that view. Raducanu has the higher ranking, but Sierra brings stronger recent results and a fuller clay record into this match.

FINISHED

Raducanu E.

Sierra S.

0-6

, 6-7

Sierra owns the stronger clay base

Sierra's clay record this season is 7-4, while Raducanu has played only one match on the surface and lost it. That matters because Sierra is also holding serve more often on clay, at 65% compared with Raducanu's 55%, while her return games won figure is higher too.

Recent form favours Sierra

The last 10 matches also lean Sierra's way. She is 7-3 in that run, with Raducanu at 4-6, and her return game has been the bigger separator. Sierra has won 45% of return games recently, while Raducanu sits at 38%, which could create pressure across longer clay rallies.

Bookmakers side with Sierra

Bookmakers price Sierra at 1.67 against Raducanu at 2.2, with first-set prices of 1.73 and 2.1. That makes Sierra the clear market favourite, though not by enough to call the match one-sided.

Return pressure may decide it

Raducanu's best route is to protect serve under pressure, and her 76% clay break-point save rate is a useful sign. Still, Sierra has the broader clay sample, the better recent record and slightly stronger return numbers. Workload is close enough not to shift the view much, even with Sierra having played 8 hours 20 minutes across her last five matches.

Raducanu E.

Sierra S.

Win Percentage

50 %70 %

Aces per match

1.9 2

Double Faults per match

3.9 4.9

First Serve Points Won

63 %64 %

Second Serve Points Won

45 %40 %

Return Points Won

45 %48 %

Break Points Converted

48 %47 %

Break Points Saved

62 %62 %

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Prediction

French Open WTAPICK

Solana Sierra

60%

Predicted Winner

Emma Raducanu

The data points towards Sierra, mainly because her clay form and recent results are stronger, while the market also makes her favourite. Raducanu's ranking and break-point saving keep this competitive, but Sierra looks better placed to create regular return pressure.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS