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Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Daniil Medvedev in the Dubai ATP semi-finals on hard courts on 27 February 2026, in a best-of-three duel for a place in the final. This preview also explains where to watch or follow the match live, alongside the key numbers shaping the contest.
Medvedev leads their rivalry 7-2 and has largely controlled the hard-court chapters, but Auger-Aliassime arrives with a 9-1 run and the higher ranking. Something has to give, and Dubai should make it clear which trend matters more.FINISHED
Auger-Aliassime F.
Medvedev D.
4-6
, 2-6
Medvedev holds a 7-2 overall lead, and the hard-court split is even more one-sided at 7-1. Their latest listed meeting ended early in Doha in February 2025, with Medvedev retiring after dropping the opening set. Even so, the series has had bite, with five tiebreaks across their nine matches.
Auger-Aliassime F.
Medvedev D.
Both players are 12-3 on hard courts this season, so the backdrop is sturdy on both sides. Auger-Aliassime has protected serve at 93%, which is a major reason he has kept sets short and scorelines clean. Medvedev does arrive a touch fresher, logging 3 hours 20 minutes across his last three matches compared with Auger-Aliassime's 5 hours 8 minutes.
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Auger-Aliassime is 9-1 across his last 10 matches, and he has taken the first set 90% of the time in that spell. Medvedev is 7-3 over the same stretch, with a much more even first-set return at 50%. Both have come through Dubai without dropping a set so far, so the baseline level looks high from each corner.
Auger-Aliassime F.
Medvedev D.
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Bookmakers price Medvedev at 1.8 against Auger-Aliassime at 2, and the first-set prices mirror that split at 1.8 and 2. It is a lean rather than a landslide.
The match-up often turns on who wins the big return points, and the rivalry numbers underline why: Medvedev has converted 57% of break points in their meetings, compared with 37% for Auger-Aliassime. That puts extra weight on Auger-Aliassime's first-strike serving, especially if sets tighten into tiebreak territory. Discipline matters too, with Auger-Aliassime averaging 2.2 double faults per match over his last 10, while Medvedev sits at 4.5.
Prediction
Daniil Medvedev
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Overall indicators tilt slightly towards Daniil Medvedev: he leads the head-to-head 7-2 and the market also shades his way at 1.8. Felix Auger-Aliassime's recent run and serving form make this dangerous, but Medvedev's track record in the match-up and his edge on key pressure points nudge the balance.
Odds
