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Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Karen Khachanov in the US Open ATP 1/32-finals on 3 September, with the hard-court match played over best of five sets.
The wider numbers favour Auger-Aliassime. His hard-court season and recent results are stronger, while the market also makes him a clear favourite, although a 2-2 career record between the pair offers some caution.Their four previous meetings are split 2-2, with the two hard-court matches also level at one win each. Three of those four contests went to a deciding set, a pattern that suggests Khachanov has previously been able to keep this match-up competitive.
Auger-Aliassime F.
Khachanov K.
Auger-Aliassime has an 18-7 hard-court record this season compared with Khachanov's 8-10 mark. Their service-game numbers are close at 89% and 88%, but Auger-Aliassime has also won 21% of return games against Khachanov's 18%, giving him a slightly stronger balance between serve and return.
Auger-Aliassime has won seven of his last 10 matches, while Khachanov has gone 4-6. The difference is also visible on serve: Auger-Aliassime has held in 92% of service games over that period, compared with 83% for Khachanov, which gives the favourite a more stable base.
Bookmakers price Auger-Aliassime at 1.36 against Khachanov at 3.2, with first-set prices of 1.5 and 2.63 respectively. The market therefore expects Auger-Aliassime to have the stronger position from the start.
Auger-Aliassime F.
Khachanov K.
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The key contrast is not simply serving strength, because both have protected serve well on hard courts. Auger-Aliassime has combined that with better recent results and a small return edge, while Khachanov has spent 11 hours 14 minutes on court across his last five matches compared with 7 hours 57 minutes for Auger-Aliassime. The balanced rivalry keeps some uncertainty, but the current indicators lean one way.
Prediction
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Karen Khachanov
The data points towards Felix Auger-Aliassime, mainly because of his stronger hard-court record and 7-3 recent run, with the market also giving him a clear advantage. Karen Khachanov's level rivalry record is a reason for caution, but the broader current indicators favour Auger-Aliassime.
Odds
