Grass numbers favour Auger-Aliassime against Zheng

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jul 2, 2026(..)

Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Michael Zheng in the Wimbledon ATP 1/16-finals on 3 July, on grass, in a best-of-five match with a last-16 place at stake.

The gap in ranking and market price is clear, but Zheng arrives with strong momentum after coming through qualification and winning his first two main-draw matches. Auger-Aliassime still has the cleaner top-level profile, helped by a stronger serve and two straight-set wins already this week.

FINISHED

Auger-Aliassime F.

Zheng M.

7-6

, 6-2

, 6-1

Grass records look close on paper

Both players are 5-2 on grass this season, so the surface record alone does not separate them much. The difference is in how they have got there. Auger-Aliassime has held 94% of service games on grass, while Zheng has held 86% and relied more on return pressure.

Zheng brings the longer winning run

Recent form is strong on both sides, with each player going 7-3 across the last 10 matches. Zheng has won five in a row, including a qualification final run and two main-draw wins at Wimbledon, so his confidence should be real. Auger-Aliassime has also started well here, winning both matches in straight sets.

Bookmakers make the ranking gap clear

Bookmakers price Auger-Aliassime at 1.17 against Zheng at 5, which makes the favourite status plain. First-set prices of 1.36 and 3.2 tell a similar story, though Zheng's current run means the match is not only about the market.

Serve control meets return pressure

The key contrast is simple. Auger-Aliassime has the stronger service base, averaging 13.7 aces across his last 10 matches and holding 91% of service games. Zheng has been sharper on return, winning 26% of return games in that same window, but he has also spent longer on court recently, with 10 hours 45 minutes across his last three matches compared with 6 hours 44 minutes for Auger-Aliassime.

Auger-Aliassime F.

Zheng M.

Win Percentage

70 %70 %

Aces per match

13.7 9

Double Faults per match

2.5 3

First Serve Points Won

80 %76 %

Second Serve Points Won

50 %51 %

Return Points Won

34 %39 %

Break Points Converted

47 %48 %

Break Points Saved

61 %59 %

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Prediction

Wimbledon ATPPICK

Felix Auger-Aliassime

76%

Predicted Winner

Michael Zheng

The data points towards Felix Auger-Aliassime, mainly because his serve gives him a clearer path through best-of-five sets and the market strongly supports that view. Zheng's winning run and return numbers keep some danger in the match, but Auger-Aliassime's grass hold rate, ranking edge and fresher recent workload make him the stronger pick.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS