Serve dominance gives Auger-Aliassime clear edge over Hijikata

Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Rinky Hijikata in the opening round of the US Open on 30 August 2026, with the world number four heavily favoured in this best-of-five hard-court clash. The Canadian’s towering serve and recent hard-court pedigree create a steep mountain for the Australian. Bookmakers reflect this stark divide, pricing a straightforward opening test for the fourth seed.

Auger-Aliassime holds commanding hard-court edge

The world number four has compiled a strong 17-7 record on hard courts this season, capturing one ATP title. He wins a formidable 90% of his service games. Hijikata has managed a respectable 19-13 record at this level. However, his 68% service hold rate leaves him vulnerable against elite returners.

First-set control tilts momentum to the favourite

Auger-Aliassime enters with a 6-4 record in his last ten matches, winning 60% of his opening sets. His 93% service games won clip during this stretch is a massive asset in best-of-five tennis. Conversely, Hijikata sits at 4-6 recently. He has struggled to take early control, securing just 30% of first sets.

Bookmakers expect a straightforward opening test

The betting markets leave little room for doubt. Auger-Aliassime is priced at a crisp 1.14 to take the match, with Hijikata available at 5.5. First-set odds similarly favour the Canadian at 1.3. This highlights the clear expectation of an early breakthrough.

Serve reliability meets five-set endurance test

Best-of-five matches heavily reward holding serve. Auger-Aliassime’s 90% seasonal service hold rate is the defining metric here. Hijikata will need to generate significant return pressure to survive. Yet his 19% return games won over the last ten matches suggests that will be a tall order. The Canadian’s lighter recent workload of under five hours across his last three matches also ensures fresh legs.

Auger-Aliassime F.

Hijikata R.

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