The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
Gabriel Diallo faces Adrian Mannarino in the Hertogenbosch ATP 1/16-finals on 8 June, on grass, over the best of three sets.
There is no meaningful past meeting to lean on, so the match is mainly framed by recent form, the wider season numbers and a market that keeps Mannarino slightly ahead. Both arrive needing a lift.FINISHED
Diallo G.
Mannarino A.
4-6
, 6-3
, 5-7
Neither player has a recorded grass win or loss in the supplied season numbers, so the wider campaign gives the cleaner read. Diallo is 6-13 this season, while Mannarino is 7-18, and the margins are small across the core numbers. Diallo has held serve slightly more often at 77%, but Mannarino has been a touch stronger on return at 17%.
Diallo has won three of his last 10 matches, compared with one win in 10 for Mannarino. That is not a strong run, but it is still the better platform. Diallo has also won 68% of service games in that spell, just above Mannarino's 66%, which matters on grass where early control can settle short sets.
Bookmakers price Mannarino at 1.73 against Diallo at 2.1, with the first-set prices matching the match market. That suggests a clear lean, but not a runaway view.
The match looks likely to turn on who protects serve better under early pressure. Diallo's ace count is higher in recent matches, but Mannarino's return numbers across the season are slightly better, so the balance is not simple. Workload also leans a little against Mannarino, who has spent 8 hours 51 minutes on court across his last five matches, compared with Diallo's 6 hours 30 minutes.
Diallo G.
Mannarino A.
The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
Prediction
Adrian Mannarino
Gabriel Diallo
The data points narrowly towards Adrian Mannarino, mainly because the market gives him the edge and his broader season return numbers are slightly stronger. Diallo's recent form is the main warning, so this is a cautious lean rather than a firm call.
Odds
