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Gael Monfils faces Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Indian Wells ATP round of 32 on hard courts on 6 March in a best-of-three match, with live coverage details below.
Auger-Aliassime arrives ranked ninth and is priced as a strong favourite, while Monfils sits at 148 and is looking to build on a straight-sets win earlier in the week. This preview breaks down the key trends and explains where to watch via live stream or follow the match as it unfolds.FINISHED
Monfils G.
Auger-Aliassime F.
7-6
, 3-6
, 4-6
They are 1-1 in their meetings and both matches came on hard courts, with neither going the distance. Monfils swept the Rotterdam final in February 2020, but Auger-Aliassime replied with a straight-sets win at the Laver Cup in September 2023. Across the two, the average has been 18.5 games, so a single break has often been enough to swing a set.
Monfils G.
Auger-Aliassime F.
Auger-Aliassime is 12-4 on hard courts this season and has held serve 91% of the time, which tends to keep pressure on opponents in the big moments. Monfils is 2-3 on the surface and sits at 76% for service games held, a slimmer platform if sets stay level late. Return-game success is similar for both, so the cleaner serving day could decide the shape of rallies.
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Auger-Aliassime has gone 8-2 across his last 10 matches and has won the first set 80% of the time, a strong marker for fast starts. Monfils is 2-8 in the same span, although victories over Damir Dzumhur and Alexis Galarneau show he can still put together a solid match when he finds rhythm. The serve numbers have separated them lately, with Auger-Aliassime holding 93% compared with Monfils’ 75%.
Monfils G.
Auger-Aliassime F.
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Bookmakers price Auger-Aliassime at 1.14 against Monfils at 5.5, with first-set prices 1.25 and 4. The market read is firm: it expects Auger-Aliassime to take control early.
The head-to-head is level, but the current pattern points towards Auger-Aliassime’s ability to protect serve and move through service games quickly. Monfils has logged 10 hours 21 minutes across his last five matches and has played on consecutive days, so a match that drifts into long exchanges may ask more of him late on. If he is to flip the script, he will want early inroads on return and a steadier second-serve performance, because these meetings have previously been decided in straight sets.
Prediction
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Gael Monfils
Overall indicators tilt towards Felix Auger-Aliassime. The odds make him the clear favourite and his recent 8-2 run, backed by a 93% service hold rate, suggests he should be able to dictate most sets even with the rivalry tied.
Odds
