Buse ranking edge meets Norrie form

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Aug 4, 2026(..)

Ignacio Buse meets Cameron Norrie in the 1/32-finals at Montreal ATP on 6 August, with the hard-court match played over best of three sets.

The ranking gap is small, and Buse sits slightly higher. Still, the recent hard-court picture and the market both lean towards Norrie, which makes this a test of whether Buse can turn broader season strength into immediate pressure.

Norrie owns the heavier hard record

Buse has gone 3-2 on hard courts this season, while Norrie brings a larger 12-8 record on the surface. Their service hold numbers are almost level, 82% for Buse and 83% for Norrie, but Norrie has the slightly stronger return figure at 23%, which matters in a match likely to be decided by small gaps.

Recent results split the picture

Buse is 5-5 across his last 10 matches, with recent wins over Vit Kopriva and Kilian Feldbausch before a quarter-final defeat to Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Kitzbuhel. Norrie is only 4-6 over the same span, but his latest run is sharper: he won four of his last five and reached the semi-finals in Los Cabos before opening Montreal with a straight-sets win.

Bookmakers side clearly with Norrie

Bookmakers price Buse at 2.75 against Norrie at 1.44; first-set prices also favour Norrie at 1.53 against 2.5. That is a clear market lean, though not one that removes all doubt given Buse's higher ranking and strong deciding-set record in the recent sample.

Early control may decide the match

Norrie's route looks tied to steadier service games and a better start. He has won the first set in 40% of his last 10, compared with 20% for Buse, and his recent hard-court matches give him clearer surface rhythm. Buse can still make this awkward if he extends rallies and turns break chances into pressure, especially with a 44% break-point conversion rate in recent matches.

Buse I.

Norrie C.

Win Percentage

50 %40 %

Aces per match

2.9 3.2

Double Faults per match

1.9 3.9

First Serve Points Won

68 %70 %

Second Serve Points Won

50 %52 %

Return Points Won

36 %38 %

Break Points Converted

44 %36 %

Break Points Saved

60 %59 %

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Prediction

Montreal ATPPICK

Cameron Norrie

64%

Predicted Winner

Ignacio Buse

The data points towards Cameron Norrie, mainly because the hard-court sample is stronger, the recent results are moving in the right direction, and the market gives him a firm edge. Buse has enough return and break-point numbers to keep this competitive, but Norrie looks the more reliable pick over best of three.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS