Buse first-set form keeps London match interesting

Ignacio Buse faces Rafael Jodar in the London ATP 1/16-finals on grass on 15 June, with the match played over best of three sets.

There is no useful past meeting to lean on, so the case turns to broader form, recent results and the market. Jodar is priced as the clear favourite, while Buse arrives with strong recent wins but no grass record in the season data.

Grass data leaves a blank slate

Neither player has a recorded grass win or loss in the season figures, so the surface picture is thin. That makes the overall season numbers more important, and they lean towards Jodar, who is 37-11 this year compared with Buse at 19-12.

Jodar owns the broader season edge

Jodar has won 82% of his service games and 31% of his return games this season, a stronger combined profile than Buse's 79% and 27%. The gap is not huge. But it matters on grass, where a small hold-rate edge can quickly shape the scoreboard.

Buse brings sharper first-set form

Buse has won eight of his last 10 matches and took the first set in 90% of those contests, so he should not be dismissed early. Jodar is 7-3 across the same recent window, with a stronger 80% service-game rate but a lower first-set mark of 40%.

Bookmakers make Jodar clear favourite

Bookmakers price Jodar at 1.36 against Buse at 3.2, with the first-set prices also favouring Jodar at 1.44 against 2.75. That market gap is clear, even if Buse's recent opening-set numbers add some caution.

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Serve control may settle it

Jodar's stronger season serve and return blend gives him the cleaner route through the match, especially if grass rewards shorter service games. Buse's recent run, including a final win in Hamburg, keeps the contest alive. The workload note is also worth a glance, with Jodar playing 15 hours and 27 minutes across his last five matches, compared with 11 hours and 36 minutes for Buse.

Prediction

Odds