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Jakub Mensik and Pablo Carreno-Busta open their Australian Open campaigns on hard courts on 20 Jan, with the first-round match set for best-of-five sets in Melbourne. This preview also sets out how to watch or follow the match live, alongside the key numbers.
It is only the third week of the 2026 season, so the evidence base is still small, but the early pointers are clear. Mensik has won both previous meetings with Carreno-Busta and arrives with a fresh final run in Auckland, while the market has him as a strong favourite.FINISHED
Mensik J.
Carreno-Busta P.
7-5
, 4-6
, 2-6
, 7-6
, 6-3
Mensik leads the rivalry 2-0 overall and is 1-0 against Carreno-Busta on hard courts, with the most recent meeting a 2-1 win in Auckland on 07 Jan 2025. That history has been shaped by Mensik's bigger serving impact in the match-up, including 19 aces per meeting and a 92% hold rate, which has kept Carreno-Busta under constant scoreboard pressure.
Mensik J.
Carreno-Busta P.
On hard courts this season, Mensik is 5-2 and already has an ATP title, while Carreno-Busta is 2-2 as the Australian Open begins. The patterns are slightly different though: Carreno-Busta's service games won figure is higher at 78%, but Mensik has created more in return games at 15% to 11%, a small gap that can matter over five sets.
Want to catch the match live? Our top pick is bet365. It's hands-down our favorite way to follow the whole tennis season. Just keep in mind a few rules: you need to be over 18 and have a funded account to access the stream. Also, geo-restrictions do apply, so make sure to double-check that the match is available in your region before signing up.
Mensik has gone 6-4 across his last 10 matches, helped by a run to the Auckland final, while Carreno-Busta is 4-6 in the same spell. The recent serving profile also separates them, with Mensik averaging 12.1 aces per match and winning 60% of first sets, compared with 4 aces and a 40% first-set rate for Carreno-Busta.
Mensik J.
Carreno-Busta P.
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Bookmakers price Mensik at 1.25 against Carreno-Busta at 4, with first-set prices 1.4 versus 3. It is a clear signal of expectation, even with the season still in its early stages.
The story so far points to Mensik: a ranking edge, a clean head-to-head record, and enough return pressure on hard courts to test Carreno-Busta's second serve. Still, the calendar context matters because players are only just settling into the Australian Open rhythm, and Mensik's recent match load is heavier at 8 hours 31 minutes across his last five, compared with 6 hours 20 minutes for Carreno-Busta. If this drifts long, that is the most obvious variable in an otherwise straightforward data picture.
Prediction
Jakub Mensik
Pablo Carreno-Busta
Overall indicators tilt towards Jakub Mensik, led by the 1.25 price and a 2-0 head-to-head edge that includes a hard-court win in Auckland. His recent run to the Auckland final and the bigger serve numbers across the last 10 also underline why he is favoured, even if the season is still new. The main caution is workload in best-of-five, but the balance of evidence still points to Mensik.
Odds
