Mensik v Jodar at Australian Open: live stream and where to watch

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jan 21, 2026(..)

Jakub Mensik faces Rafael Jodar in the Australian Open ATP 1/32-finals on 22 January, a best-of-five hard-court test with live-stream and viewing details here.

It is only the third week of the 2026 season, so the numbers come with caveats. Still, the market leans towards the world number 18, while the qualifier arrives with a surge of wins that makes this a trickier opening-week match than the rankings alone suggest.

FINISHED

Mensik J.

Jodar R.

6-2

, 6-4

Early hard-court numbers favour Jodar

Mensik is 6-2 on hard courts this season and already has an ATP title, while Jodar comes in at 10-1 as the schedule ramps up in January. The serving split is sharp too: Mensik has won 71% of his service games on the surface, compared with 85% for Jodar. If that holds up over five sets, it changes the pressure points quickly.

Recent runs suggest a fast-start threat

Across the last 10 matches, Mensik is 7-3 and Jodar 9-1, with Jodar taking the first set 90% of the time against 60% for Mensik. Both arrive off five-set openers in Melbourne, with Mensik edging Pablo Carreno-Busta 3-2 and Jodar doing the same to Rei Sakamoto. That shared path hints at a match that could swing on who settles sooner.

Jakub Mensik v. Rafael Jodar Live Streaming

Want to catch the match live? Our top pick is bet365. It's hands-down our favorite way to follow the whole tennis season. Just keep in mind a few rules: you need to be over 18 and have a funded account to access the stream. Also, geo-restrictions do apply, so make sure to double-check that the match is available in your region before signing up.

Bookmakers still lean towards Mensik

Bookmakers price Mensik at 1.53 against Jodar at 2.5; first-set prices are 1.62 versus 2.3. The gap is clear, but not huge, and it sits alongside Jodar's strong early-season momentum.

Mensik J.

Jodar R.

Win Percentage

80 %90 %

Titles

1 0

Aces per match

15.4 3.8

Double Faults per match

5.5 1.3

First Serve Points Won

77 %65 %

Second Serve Points Won

51 %62 %

Return Points Won

39 %43 %

Break Points Converted

41 %44 %

Break Points Saved

64 %64 %

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Best-of-five raises the stamina question

With this one set for a long format, the ability to manage dips matters as much as pure speed at the start. Mensik has logged 11 hours 2 minutes on court across his last five matches, slightly more than Jodar's 9 hours 57 minutes, and neither has been pushed into back-to-back days.

The data points in different directions, so the early break chances and first-set tone could decide whether this stays tight deep into the match.

Prediction

Australian Open ATPPICK

Jakub Mensik

62%

Predicted Winner

Rafael Jodar

Overall indicators tilt towards Jakub Mensik: he is the bookmakers' favourite and the rankings gap is sizeable, and his early-season record includes an ATP title. Rafael Jodar's recent form and first-set success rate keep the upset case alive, though, especially in a season that is only just settling into shape.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS