Erjavec faces steep task against Paolini in New York

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Aug 28, 2026(..)

Jasmine Paolini starts her US Open bid against Veronika Erjavec in the first round on hard courts on 28 August, with a best-of-three format.

The market has installed Paolini as a strong favourite, but her advantage is built on more than ranking. She has the better hard-court record and a much stronger recent opening-set record, which should matter in a match where early control often decides the outcome.

Paolini carries the stronger hard-court record

Paolini is 8-7 on hard courts this season, while Erjavec has managed only two wins in eight matches on the surface. The deeper edge is in return games: Paolini wins 41% of them, against Erjavec's 31%. That return gap should allow Paolini to create more break chances from the start.

First-set trend points sharply to Paolini

Paolini has won six of her last ten matches, while Erjavec has dropped six of hers. Opening sets are a major concern for Erjavec, who has taken the first set in only 30% of those matches. Paolini has done so 60% of the time, giving her a clear early advantage in a best-of-three contest.

Market sets a heavy favourite

Bookmakers price Paolini at 1.13 to win the match, with Erjavec at 6.00. The first-set market is similarly one-sided, at 1.22 against 4.33, reflecting the clear expected gap in early control.

Return pressure and opening control shape the match

Ranked 20th to Erjavec's 106th, Paolini also brings stronger returning and a much better record in opening sets. Erjavec can hold serve, but her low break-point save rate of 37% on hard courts leaves her vulnerable when Paolini applies pressure. Both players have similar recent workloads, so fatigue should not distort the picture. The likely path is Paolini controlling the first set and then closing from the front.

Paolini J.

Erjavec V.

Win Percentage

60 %40 %

Aces per match

0.7 0.8

Double Faults per match

2.2 1.9

First Serve Points Won

64 %60 %

Second Serve Points Won

47 %45 %

Return Points Won

43 %43 %

Break Points Converted

43 %51 %

Break Points Saved

63 %44 %

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Prediction

US Open WTAPICK

Jasmine Paolini

76%

Predicted Winner

Veronika Erjavec

The indicators point clearly towards Jasmine Paolini. Her superior hard-court return numbers and first-set reliability, along with market confidence, give her a substantial edge over Veronika Erjavec. Erjavec may hold serve at times, but an upset looks unlikely without a sharp reversal in her early-match form.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS