Pegula's commanding hard-court record underpins heavy favourite status at US Open

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Aug 28, 2026(..)

World number three Jessica Pegula opens her US Open campaign against Elena Gabriela Ruse in a best-of-three first-round clash on the hard courts.

The American carries overwhelming market backing and a dominant surface record into the matchup. Ruse faces a steep uphill battle to disrupt Pegula’s rhythm on this surface.

Pegula's commanding hard-court authority

Pegula has compiled a formidable 29-7 record on hard courts this season, securing one WTA title. Her efficiency is stark, winning 77% of her service games. Ruse holds an 11-10 surface record. She struggles to match that baseline consistency.

First-set control tilts the balance

Over their last ten matches, Pegula has won 70% of her opening sets. She also converts 52% of her break-point opportunities. Ruse manages a 50% first-set win rate in the same span. This early pressure often dictates the match tempo.

Bookmakers price in a clear hierarchy

The betting market reflects the stark ranking disparity. Bookmakers price Pegula at 1.13 to win, with Ruse at 6. First-set markets similarly favour the American at 1.22.

Return pressure meets serving consistency

Pegula’s ability to win 38% of return games will test Ruse’s resolve. While Ruse saves 56.5% of break points on hard courts, Pegula’s relentless conversion rate creates sustained pressure. Fatigue is minimal for both, leaving form as the primary decider.

Pegula J.

Ruse G.

Win Percentage

70 %50 %

Aces per match

3.2 4.6

Double Faults per match

2.3 4.8

First Serve Points Won

65 %71 %

Second Serve Points Won

45 %46 %

Return Points Won

45 %44 %

Break Points Converted

52 %40 %

Break Points Saved

46 %52 %

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Prediction

US Open WTAPICK

Jessica Pegula

88%

Predicted Winner

Elena Gabriela Ruse

The data points decisively towards Jessica Pegula. Her superior hard-court win percentage, combined with dominant break-point conversion and overwhelming market confidence, makes her the clear choice. Ruse will need a career-best performance to cause an upset.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS