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WTA/US Open WTA/Quarter-finals

Pegula holds the advantage before Navarro quarter-final

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Sep 7, 2026(..)

Jessica Pegula faces Emma Navarro in the US Open WTA quarter-finals on 8 September, with the best-of-three contest played on hard courts.

Pegula brings the stronger record into the match. She leads the rivalry 4-0, has won nine of her last 10 matches and is also the clear favourite in the market.

Pegula holds a 4-0 rivalry lead

Pegula has won all four previous meetings, including their Beijing quarter-final in October 2025, which went to three sets. Two of the four matches have reached a deciding set, but Pegula won both, and she has also held serve far more often across the rivalry, 81% to Navarro's 63%.

Pegula J.

Navarro E.

Wins

4 0

First Serve Points Won

68 %60 %

Second Serve Points Won

49 %48 %

Return Points Won

44 %38 %

Break Points Converted

38 %24 %

Break Points Saved

76 %62 %

Hard-court results strongly favour Pegula

Pegula is 33-7 on hard courts this season compared with Navarro's 10-12 record. The gap also shows in the basic serve and return numbers: Pegula has won 77% of service games and 39% of return games, while Navarro sits at 65% and 27% respectively.

Recent form widens the gap

Pegula has won nine of her last 10 matches, while Navarro is 6-4 over the same span. Pegula has also taken the opening set in 80% of those matches and won 43% of return games, giving her a stronger recent platform from the start of matches.

Market expects Pegula to control it

Bookmakers price Pegula at 1.22 against Navarro at 4.33, with first-set prices of 1.33 and 3.4. Those numbers make Pegula a clear favourite both for the match and for the opening set.

Pegula J.

Navarro E.

Win Percentage

90 %60 %

Aces per match

3.7 7

Double Faults per match

2.1 5.1

First Serve Points Won

66 %69 %

Second Serve Points Won

49 %41 %

Return Points Won

47 %43 %

Break Points Converted

44 %40 %

Break Points Saved

55 %65 %

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Return pressure could set the tone

The main pressure point is Navarro's ability to protect her serve against a player producing much stronger return numbers. Pegula also arrives with the lighter recent workload, having spent 7 hours 13 minutes on court across her last five matches compared with Navarro's 10 hours 21 minutes, while Navarro also carries a back-to-back flag. That does not decide the match by itself, but it adds to an already difficult set of numbers for Navarro.

Prediction

US Open WTAPICK

Jessica Pegula

82%

Predicted Winner

Emma Navarro

The overall indicators lean clearly towards Jessica Pegula. Her 4-0 rivalry record, much stronger hard-court season and 9-1 recent run all support the market view, while Emma Navarro also comes in with the heavier recent workload.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS