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Cirstea faces familiar hard-court test against Pegula

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Sep 5, 2026(..)

Jessica Pegula faces Sorana Cirstea in the US Open last 16 on 5 September, on hard court in a best-of-three-set contest. Pegula is ranked third, while Cirstea sits at 17, but the gap in market pricing and recent meetings is clear.

Pegula has won both previous encounters, including a three-setter in Cincinnati last month. Her stronger second-serve numbers and deciding-set record give her a clear analytical edge.

Pegula's 2-0 grip and big-point edge

Pegula has won both previous meetings, most recently in Cincinnati in August 2026, a match that went the distance. Across those two matches she has been stronger on second-serve points won and break-point conversion. That pattern should matter again on a fast hard court.

Pegula J.

Cirstea S.

Wins

2 0

First Serve Points Won

68 %67 %

Second Serve Points Won

52 %39 %

Return Points Won

45 %39 %

Break Points Converted

56 %50 %

Break Points Saved

50 %44 %

Pegula's service hold gives her the hard-court base

Pegula's hard-court season record stands at 32 wins and 7 losses with one title, holding serve 78% of the time. Cirstea has also been solid at 22 and 7, holding 76%. The slight edge in hold percentage and higher win volume tilts the baseline towards Pegula.

Deciding-set edge separates them in recent weeks

Pegula arrives with 8 wins from her last 10 and has won all of her deciding sets in that stretch. Cirstea has 7 wins from 10 but won only a third of deciding sets. Cirstea's serve numbers are a touch stronger, but she also gives away more double faults, which could invite pressure.

Bookmakers make Pegula a clear favourite

Bookmakers price Pegula at 1.33 against Cirstea at 3.4. First-set prices are 1.44 and 2.75. That gap reflects both the ranking difference and the head-to-head history.

Pegula J.

Cirstea S.

Win Percentage

80 %70 %

Aces per match

3.5 5

Double Faults per match

1.9 3.8

First Serve Points Won

67 %70 %

Second Serve Points Won

48 %44 %

Return Points Won

45 %46 %

Break Points Converted

43 %46 %

Break Points Saved

52 %60 %

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Hold strength, break point control and H2H history align

The match should hinge on Pegula's ability to protect her serve and convert break chances. Cirstea's return numbers are slightly better, but she has been less reliable in tight moments. Fatigue is not a factor, with both players having similar recent court time. Overall, the data points firmly towards Pegula.

Prediction

US Open WTAPICK

Jessica Pegula

70%

Predicted Winner

Sorana Cirstea

Pegula's superior serve hold, unblemished deciding-set record and 2-0 head-to-head edge all point in her direction. Cirstea can push sets, but the market and recent match patterns favour Pegula.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS