Strong recent run lifts Majchrzak's Montreal hopes

Kamil Majchrzak faces Gael Monfils in the first round of the Montreal ATP on 3 August, with the hard-court contest played over the best of three sets.

Majchrzak arrives with stronger recent results and clear backing from bookmakers. Monfils still carries serving threat, but his results and lack of recent match play create a difficult starting point.

Hard-court numbers offer only a small gap

Majchrzak has won eight of his 17 hard-court matches this season, while Monfils stands at two wins from six. Their service figures are close at 80% and 78%, and both have won 14% of return games, so the broader hard-court numbers alone do not suggest a one-sided match.

Recent results strongly favour Majchrzak

The sharper difference comes from the last 10 matches. Majchrzak has gone 7-3 and held serve in 86% of games, compared with a 3-7 run and a 75% hold rate for Monfils. Majchrzak also won the Hertogenbosch final and recently beat Tommy Paul in Washington, while Monfils has not played since his French Open defeat on 24 May.

Bookmakers expect Majchrzak to control

Bookmakers price Majchrzak at 1.22 against Monfils at 4.33. The first-set prices of 1.3 and 3.5 show that the market also expects Majchrzak to settle more quickly.

Cleaner serving could settle the contest

Monfils has produced more aces recently, averaging 8.5 per match, but he has also averaged 4.6 double faults. Majchrzak's lower error rate and stronger hold figures give him a safer base. Unless Monfils can shorten points and protect his second serve, Majchrzak should have more chances to take control.

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