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Khachanov v Darderi: where to watch and Australian Open round-of-32 preview

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jan 23, 2026(..)

Karen Khachanov meets Luciano Darderi in the Australian Open round of 32 on hard courts on 24 January, in a best-of-five match, with details here on how to follow live.

It is still early in 2026, with the season only just settling into its rhythm as the Australian Open gets going. The market leans heavily towards Khachanov, but both men arrive with similar recent records, so the first set may tell an immediate story.

FINISHED

Khachanov K.

1
3

Darderi L.

6-7

, 6-3

, 3-6

, 4-6

Break-point grit on thin hard-court sample

With the new season only in its third week, the hard-court sample is small but still revealing. Darderi is 3-1 on the surface so far, while Khachanov is 2-1, yet Khachanov has saved 84% of break points, which can matter over a long five-set shift. Darderi has converted 41% of his break chances, so he will look to keep asking questions when openings appear.

Two early Australian Open wins apiece

Over their last 10 matches overall, both players sit at 4-6, so neither arrives with a runaway form line. Khachanov’s serving profile stands out, holding 83% of service games and averaging about 11 aces a match, while Darderi is at 73% and closer to nine.

Both have won 40% of first sets in that span, but Khachanov’s deciding-set win rate is 50% compared with Darderi’s 33%, a small edge if this becomes a grind.

How to watch Karen Khachanov v. Luciano Darderi Online

For reliable live streaming of this match, we recommend signing up with bet365. Please note that this service is strictly for users aged 18+ who maintain a funded account. Due to broadcasting rights, geo-restrictions may apply, so we advise checking the schedule to confirm availability in your location. In our experience, this is the premier option for watching the entire tennis season.

Market strongly sides with Khachanov

Bookmakers price Khachanov at 1.2 against Darderi at 4.5; the first-set prices are 1.36 versus 3.2. That gap suggests a clear expectation of Khachanov control, even with the season still in its early stages.

Khachanov K.

Darderi L.

Win Percentage
40 %40 %
Aces per match
11.1 8.5
Double Faults per match
1.8 2.7
First Serve Points Won
75 %70 %
Second Serve Points Won
50 %44 %
Return Points Won
34 %36 %
Break Points Converted
35 %42 %
Break Points Saved
69 %55 %

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Serve patterns loom over five sets

Best-of-five tennis tends to reward steadiness, and Khachanov’s stronger hold rate and lower double-fault count point towards cleaner service games when pressure builds. Darderi’s better break-point conversion this season hints he can take chances if they come, but he may need to create more of them than the recent return numbers suggest. Both men have played back-to-back, with around 7 hours 59 minutes across the last three matches, so managing momentum swings could be as important as any single set.

Prediction

Australian Open ATPPICK

Karen Khachanov

79%
Predicted Winner

Luciano Darderi

Overall indicators tilt towards Karen Khachanov, led by a decisive market lean and a stronger recent serving profile that should play up in a five-set format. Luciano Darderi’s early-season hard-court record and break-point conversion give him a route in, but the numbers slightly favour Khachanov sustaining the higher baseline level over time.

Odds

Odds:

To Win Match

Total Games

32.5

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